000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190307 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N84W to 1011 mb low pressure located near 06N105W to 05N108W. The ITCZ continues from 05N108W to 06N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is near 05N84W, and from 04N to 07N between 133W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing generally gentle to moderate northwest to north winds. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of California, and between Los Cabos and Las Marias Islands. Light and variable winds persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas continue to subside across the offshore waters of Baja California, and currently sea heights of 8 to 10 ft are observed. For the forecast, the above mentioned ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through at least Fri, producing mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds. Light to gentle winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through the rest of the week along with 4-6 ft seas due to west-northwest swell. Long-period northwest swell will continue to propagate over the offshore waters of the Baja California Peninsula through Thu while subsiding, however, lingering northwest swell will be over the waters west of Baja California Norte through Fri, with seas of 8-10 ft. A cold front will sweep southward across the Gulf of California and the Baja California Peninsula Fri through Sat. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase in the Gulf of California from Fri night through Sun as the gradient tightens over the area after the passage of the aforementioned cold front and due to strong high pressure that will build east-southeastward in its wake. As a result, fresh to locally strong northwest winds are forecast to funnel through the Baja California gaps and into the offshore waters, especially between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro and across the entire Gulf of California from Fri night through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The most recent scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama, reaching downstream to near 05N, while light and variable winds are near the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere based on scatterometer data. Seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range, except SW of the Galapagos Islands where seas of 6 to 7 ft in NW swell are noted. For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Fri, then winds are forecast to increase again to fresh to strong speeds Fri night through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama, and east of the Azuero Peninsula through the rest of the week. Seas will subside slightly to 5 to 6 ft tonight and change little through Fri. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb situated near 32N136W has a ridge extending beyond the Revillagigedo Islands, and covers the area north of 10N and west 110W. The associated pressure gradient supports mainly moderate to locally fresh northeast to east trade winds across the west-central waters, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range due to a long-period northwest swell. For the forecast, long-period northwest swell will continue to propagate across most of the forecast waters through Thu, while slowly decaying allowing for a subsiding trend of the seas. High pressure will dominate most of the forecast waters north of about 15N and west of 110W for the rest of the week. The high pressure will strengthen some during the upcoming weekend, with the resultant gradient increasing the trade wind flow over this part of the area. The next swell event is expected to reach the far northwest corner of the discussion area by Fri evening. $$ GR