000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jan 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1010 mb over northwest Colombia westward to southern Costa Rica, southwestward to 07N92W, then northwestward to 08N100W and to low pressure near 07N106W 1011 mb, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N118W to 07N128W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 95W-100W, also within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 112W-116W and between 125W-130W, and within 60 NM north of the ITCZ between 132W-138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Overnight scatterometer data depicts generally gentle to moderate northwest to north winds across the offshore waters of Baja California under the influence of a ridge. A small pocket of fresh northwest winds is near and just offshore Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle north winds are noted in the southern Gulf of California, and between Los Cabos and Las Marias Islands. Light and variable winds persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Latest altimeter data passes reveal seas in the range of 8-11 ft north of 10N and west of about 110W. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through at least Fri, producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Light to gentle winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through the rest of the week along with 4-6 ft seas. Long-period northwest swell will continue to propagate over the offshore waters of the Baja California Peninsula through this morning, with seas of 8-11 ft. The leading edge of this swell event is expected to reach the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands by early this afternoon. Afterward, the swell will slowly subside through late Thu allowing for seas to lower to 6-8 ft. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase in the Gulf of California during the upcoming weekend as a strong high pressure settles over the Great Basin of the United States. At the same time, fresh to locally strong winds are forecast to funnel through the Baja California passes into the offshore waters, particularly between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mostly moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama to about 08N while light and variable winds are now near the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere based on scatterometer data. Long-period northwest swell propagating through these waters has raised seas to the range of 6-8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Latest altimeter data pass over this part of the area indicated the presence of these sea heights. Elsewhere, seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Fri, then winds are forecast to increase again to fresh to strong speeds Fri night and Sat. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama, and east of the Azuero Peninsula through the rest of the week. Seas of 6-7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will subside slightly to 5-6 ft this afternoon, except to the southwest of the Galapagos Islands where higher seas of 6-8 ft due to a long- period swell are present. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is taking control of the weather pattern across the area north of the ITCZ and west of 110W as a high center of 1024 mb is presently analyzed just north of the area near 32N133W. The associated gradient supports mainly gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds across this part of the area, except for light and variable winds north of 26N and west of 127W and mostly fresh northeast northeast winds from 07N to 20N west of 128W. Seas over this area in the 8-11 ft range due to a long-period northwest swell. For the forecast, large and long-period northwest swell will continue to propagate across most of the forecast waters through Thu while slowly decaying allowing for a subsiding trend of the seas. High pressure will dominate most of the forecast waters north of about 15N and west of 10W the remainder of the work- week. This system will strenghten some during the upcoming weekend, with the resultant gradient increasing the trade wind flow over this part of the area. The next swell event is expected to reach the northwest corner of the forecast region by Fri evening. $$ Aguirre