000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180307
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N84W
to 1011 mb low pressure located near 05N103W to 05N110W. The ITCZ
axis continues from 05N110W to 07N128W to 06N140W. Convection is
limited.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing across the central Gulf of California 
and Baja California Sur. Fresh NW winds are noted over parts of 
Baja California and the Gulf of California in the wake of the 
front. Seas are 3-5 ft in the Gulf of California behind the
front, and 8 to 12 ft across the offshore waters of Baja 
California where moderate to fresh NW winds prevail. In the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec region, gentle southerly winds are present there. 
Long-period northwest swell continues to propagate across most of
the offshore forecast waters of Mexico, with seas of 5 to 7 ft S
of the front. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds are forecast tonight
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California N of Cabo
San Lazaro, then mainly gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail
during the next several day. Light to gentle winds will persist 
in the Tehuantepec region through the rest of the week along with
4-6 ft seas. Long-period northwest swell will continue to 
propagate over the offshore waters of the Baja California 
Peninsula tonight through early Wed, with seas of 8 to 12 ft. The
leading edge of this swell event is expected to reach the 
vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands by early Wed afternoon. 
Afterward, the swell will slowly subside through late Thu 
allowing for seas to lower to 6-8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mostly fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle winds are 
noted per scatterometer data elsewhere. Long-period northwest 
swell propagating through these waters has raised seas to the 
range of 6-7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.  
Elsewhere, seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail in
the Papagayo region through Fri, then winds are forecast to
increase again to fresh to strong speeds Fri night and Sat. 
Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama, and 
east of the Azuero Peninsula the remainder of the work-week. Seas
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will subside to 5 to 6
ft late on Wed, except SW of the Galapagos Islands. Winds will 
be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several
days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from Baja California Sur near 24N112W 
southwestward to near 21N117W, where it transitions to a 
dissipating front to 20N125W. Fresh NW winds and seas of 8 to 12
ft in NW swell are noted behind the front. Elsewhere, a surface 
ridge dominates the waters north of 10N west of about 110W. Light
to gentle winds are under the influence of the ridge, except for
moderate to fresh northeast winds confined to the southern 
periphery of the ridge, where a tighter pressure gradient exists 
between the ITCZ and 15N. Long period NW swell continues to
propagate across the forecast waters while subsiding except N of
20N and W of 110W where another set of long- period northwest 
swell continues to spread southward. 

For the forecast, large and long-period northwest swell will 
continue to propagate across most of the forecast waters through 
Thu while slowly decaying allowing for a subsiding trend of the 
seas. The cold front is forecast to dissipate in about 24 hours 
while reaching the waters near 18N. At that time, a remnant 
frontal trough, is likely to be the analyzed feature. The fresh 
northwest winds behind the front are forecast to become gentle to
moderate north to northeast winds tonight into Wed as the front 
moves to just south of Baja California and extends westward along
or near 19N to 125W. These winds will change little going into 
Thu as the front weakens to a remnant frontal trough, and as seas
continue to subside. Behind the trough, trade winds are expected
to increase some Thu over the western part of the area between 
the ITCZ and 25N as high pressure builds eastward roughly along 
30N. 

$$
GR