000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170322
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to low pressure of 
1010 mb near 05N101W to 04N112W. The ITCZ continues from 04N112W
to 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
near the low center from 04N to 07N between 99W and 104W, and
from 06N to 10N between 125W and 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front has reached northern Baja California. Fresh to 
strong SW winds are over the northern Gulf of California ahead of
the front that extends SW from 30N115W to 24N124W to 24N136W and
weakening to 25N140W. High pressure dominates the offshore 
waters of Baja California Sur, with an associated ridge extending
to southern Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressures inland Mexico currently supports 
moderate to locally fresh NW winds roughly across the offshore 
waters between Cabo Corrientes and Manzanillo. In the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region, light and variable winds continue there. 
Long-period NW swell is propagating across most of the offshore 
waters of Mexico, with seas generally in the 8-11 ft range N of 
Acapulco, except for higher seas of 10-13 ft N of 29N.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist in the 
northern Gulf of California through Tue morning. Seas will build
to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds will prevail in the Tehuantepec 
region through the week along with 4-6 ft seas. Long-period NW 
swell will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of 
Baja California. Another set of large NW swell is propagating  
through the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Resultant 
seas are building, reaching the range of 10-14 ft N of Punta 
Eugenia. This swell event will bring seas of 9-12 ft to the 
waters N of Cabo San Lazaro on Tue. These seas will slowly 
subside through late Thu as the swell decays.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind 
to near 88W with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in
the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero peninsula, with seas of 
4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Outside of
the Papagayo region, long-period W-NW swell spreading across the
area has raised seas to the range of 6-8 ft over the offshore 
waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala per latest altimeter
data pass over these waters. Elsewhere seas of 5-7 ft are 
present, except for slightly lower seas of 4-6 ft between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf
of Papagayo through early Tue, then mainly fresh winds will 
prevail through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in 
the Gulf of Panama, and east of the Azuero Peninsula the
remainder of the work-week. Seas from northern Costa Rica to 
Guatemala offshore waters will subside by Tue. Winds will be 
moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several 
days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned, a cold front extends from 30N115W to 
24N124W to 24N136W and weakening to 25N140W. Fresh to locally 
strong NW-N winds and rough to very rough seas follow the front.
Elsewhere, a surface ridge dominates the waters N of 10N west of
about 110W. Latest available ASCAT data passes generally depict 
light to gentle winds under the influence of the ridge, except 
for moderate to fresh NE winds confined to the southern periphery
of the ridge, where a tighter pressure gradient exists between 
the ITCZ and 15N. Long-period NW swell dominates most of the 
forecast region, with seas of 8-11 ft across most of the waters 
west of 90W.

For the forecast, large and long-period NW swell will continue 
to propagate across most of the forecast waters through at least 
Wed, as another set entering the forecast region behind the 
aforementioned cold front. The cold front will move across Baja 
California Norte through tonight, and reach from 23N112W to 
22N125W to 21N140W by Tue evening. The rough to very rough seas 
in the wake of the front will gradually subside through late Wed.
Fresh NW winds following in behind the front are forecast to 
spread across the waters W of Baja California Norte through Tue, 
then across the waters W of the northern part of Baja California 
Sur through early Wed before diminishing to moderate speeds. 
Seas will gradually subside across the discussion area by late 
Thu.

Weak low pressure of 1010 mb along the monsoon trough is located
near 05N101W. This system is producing scattered moderate  
convection from 04N to 07N between 99W and 104W. An ASCAT data 
pass near the low suggested fresh NE-E winds associated to a 
locally induced gradient by the convection. The low pressure is 
forecast by model guidance to shift W-NW through late Wed, but 
remain rather weak.

$$
GR