261 
AXPZ20 KNHC 160908
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jan 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to a 1011 mb low pressure
located near 05N97W to 08N105W. The ITCZ continues from 08N105W 
to 09N110W to 07N130W to 06N140W. Convection is limited.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong SW winds are over the northern Gulf of California
ahead of a cold front that is approaching Baja California Norte.  
High pressure dominates the offshore waters of Baja California 
Sur and the associated ridge extends into the southern Gulf of
California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures inland Mexico currently supports moderate to locally
fresh NW winds roughly across the offshore waters between Cabo 
Corrientes and Manzanillo. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, 
light and variable winds prevail. Long period NW swell is
propagating across most of the offshore waters of Mexico, with 
seas generally in the 8 to 11 ft range N of Acapulco.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist in the
northern Gulf of California through early Tue as another cold
front moves across the area. Seas will build to 8 ft. Light to 
gentle winds will prevail in the Tehuantepec region through the 
week, with 4-6 ft seas. Long period NW swell will continue to 
propagate across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas 
will subside some today, but another set of large NW swell is 
expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte by
this afternoon, building seas to 10 to 14 ft N of Punta Eugenia 
by this evening. This swell event will affect the waters N of 
Cabo San Lazaro on Tue with seas of 9 to 11 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to
near 88W with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Fresh to locally strong N winds
are seen in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero peninsula 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted 
elsewhere. Outside of the Papagayo region, long period NW swell 
spreading across the area is building seas to 6 to 8 ft over the 
offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. Elsewhere 
seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted, except 3 to 5 ft between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf
of Papagayo through tonight, then mainly fresh winds will prevail
through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the 
Gulf of Panama, and east of the Azuero Peninsula through this
morning. Seas from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala offshore 
waters will subside by Tue. Winds will be moderate or weaker 
elsewhere through at least the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front has entered the northern forecast waters and extends
from 30N125W to 28N140W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough
to very rough seas follow the front. Elsewhere, a surface ridge 
dominates the waters N of 15N W of 110W. Recent satellite derived
wind data indicate light to gentle winds under the influence of
the ridge. An area of moderate to locally fresh trades is noted N
of the ITCZ to about 14n and W of 135W. long period NW swell
dominates most of the forecast region with seas of 8 to 11 ft
across most of the waters W of 90W.

For the forecast, large and long period NW swell will continue to
propagate across most of the forecast waters through at least
mid-week, with another set entering the forecast region behind 
the aforementioned cold front. The cold front will move across
Baja California Norte into the Gulf of California by this
evening, extending from 31N114W to 24N120W while weakening from 
this point to 23N140W. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected in the 
wake of the front N of 27N by this afternoon. As the front moves
E of the forecast area, expect fresh NW winds across the waters 
W of Baja California Norte by Tue. Seas will gradually subside
across the discussion area by late Wed.

$$
GR