000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151539 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jan 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: The cold front currently moving over northern Costa Rica is supporting gale force NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. The gale force winds will end by this afternoon. Seas are expected to build near 11 ft during this time. Strong winds will prevail through Mon evening with tranquil conditions to follow through most of the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on both Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Panama near 08N83W to a 1011 mb low near 04N94W to 06N97W. The ITCZ continues from 06N97W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N and E of 96W and from 04N to 13N between 110W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near gale force N winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, diminishing by the evening hours. Surface ridging prevails west of Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are noted N of 27N, while light to moderate northerly winds prevail elsewhere S of 27N. In the Gulf of California, strong to near gale force SW winds are noted in the northern Gulf with light to gentle winds in the central and southern Gulf. Seas of 8-12 ft will prevail in the Tehuantepec area through the evening hours, diminishing to 4-6 ft tonight and continue through the week. NW swell continues across waters to the west of Baja and near SW Mexico with seas ranging 10-12 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 8-12 ft over the southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas are near 8-9 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 2-4 ft elsewhere in the Gulf. Showers continue to move over most of Baja California, the northern and central Gulf of California, and NW Mexico due to an approaching front. For the forecast, a series of fronts will continue to bring persistent strong to near-gale force SW winds in the northern Gulf of California through Mon night. Seas will build to 8-9 ft with the strongest winds. Light to gentle winds will prevail in the Tehuantepec region through the week, with 4-6 ft seas. The NW swell of 8 ft or greater offshore Baja California will continue into Monday and eventually subside by Tue. The 12 ft seas will subside by this evening. Another set of large NW swell is expected offshore Baja California Norte on Mon through most of the week. Seas will peak near 16 ft on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning. Fresh to strong N-NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted in the Gulf of Fonseca. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 8-10 ft in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Panama and the Azuero Peninsula and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the rest of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the offshore waters of Colombia. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh N-NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula through Mon. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse east of the Azuero Peninsula later today and into tonight. Seas over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters will subside by Tue. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NW swell producing very rough seas covers a large portion of the forecast waters. Seas ranging 12-14 ft are noted N of 02N and W of 110W. The 8 ft or greater seas extend as far south as the Equator and W of 90W. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the area. A cold front extends from 30N116W to 22N140W. Moderate winds are noted ahead and behind the front. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades are north of the ITCZ to 20N. Moderate to fresh SW winds are S of the ITCZ and W of 110W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. For the forecast, the 12 ft seas will decay by tonight into Mon morning. The 8 ft seas will begin to subside by midweek. However, another pair of cold fronts with large, reinforcing swell will push south of 30N tonight into Mon. Fresh to strong winds north of 28N may accompany both fronts. Very rough seas associated with these fronts will likely propagate as far south as 24N through midweek. Seas will peak near 16 ft N of 29N and between 120W and 135W. Meanwhile, high pressure and moderate to fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt. Fresh winds will prevail through Mon west of 120W as the gradient tightens. $$ ERA