000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150359 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jan 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force N winds will prevail through early Sun morning across the Tehuantepec area. Seas are currently near 15 ft and will drop below 12 ft by Sun morning. Winds and seas will diminish below warning criteria on Sun. Tranquil weather conditions to follow through most of the week. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds over the region are expected to continue over the next several days. The cold front in the Caribbean Sea will push south across Central America through tonight. This will support brief gale force NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun afternoon. Seas are expected to build near 12 ft during this time. Strong winds will prevail through Mon night with tranquil conditions to follow through most of the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on both Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Panama near 08N78W to a 1011 mb low near 04N92W to 07N99W. The ITCZ continues from 07N99W to 06N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N and E of 93W and from 02N to 12N between 105W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning. Surface ridging prevails west of Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are noted N of 27N, while light to moderate northerly winds prevail elsewhere S of 27N. In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong winds are noted in the northern Gulf with light to gentle winds in the central and southern Gulf. NW swell continues across waters to the west of Baja. Seas range 11-13 ft across the Baja California offshore waters. Elsewhere, seas are 8-12 ft over the southwest and southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas are up to 5 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 2-4 ft elsewhere in the Gulf. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a series of fronts will bring strong to near-gale force SW winds in the northern Gulf of California through Tue. Seas will build to 8-10 ft with the strongest winds. NW swell of 8 ft or greater offshore Baja California will continue through the weekend, with the 12 ft subsiding by Sun evening. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the entire offshore waters through early next week. Another set of large NW swell is expected offshore Baja California Mon through midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near-gale NE winds and 8-11 ft seas are occurring across the Papagayo region, while fresh to strong N-NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 8-11 ft in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Seas are 4-6 ft prevail across the rest of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the offshore waters of Colombia and Panama. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh N-NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula through Mon. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse east of the Azuero Peninsula tonight and Sun night. The gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue bring swell into the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Seas will subside mostly by Mon, with 8 ft seas lingering in the far southwest portion of the offshore waters through at least midweek. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days, except moderate to fresh offshore Gulf of Fonseca through early Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NW swell producing very rough seas covers a large portion of the forecast waters. Seas ranging 12-15 ft are noted N of 02N and W of 110W. The 8 ft or greater seas extend as far south as the Equator and W of 90W. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the area. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades are north of the ITCZ to 20N. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. For the forecast, the NW swell will continue to propagate eastward across the waters through the weekend. The 12 ft seas will decay by Sun night into Mon morning. The 8 ft seas will begin to subside by early next week. However, another pair of cold fronts with large, reinforcing swell will push south of 30N by Sun night into Mon. Fresh to strong winds north of 28N may accompany both fronts. Very rough seas associated with these fronts will likely propagate as far south as 24N through midweek. Meanwhile, high pressure and moderate to fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt. Fresh winds will prevail through Sun west of 120W as the gradient tightens. $$ AReinhart