000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142048 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jan 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force N winds will prevail through early Sun morning across the Tehuantepec area. Seas are currently near 17 ft and will drop below 12 ft by Sun morning. Winds and seas will diminish below warning criteria on Sun. Tranquil weather conditions to follow through most of the week. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds over the region are expected to continue over the next several days. The cold front in the Caribbean Sea will push south across Central America through tonight, supporting brief gale force NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun afternoon. Seas are expected to build near 11 ft during this time. Strong winds will prevail through Mon night with tranquil conditions to follow through most of the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on both Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica/Panama near 08N83W to 06N95W. The ITCZ continues from 06N95W to beyond 05N140W. A surface trough has developed S of the monsoon trough from 06N77W to 03N84W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N and E of 85W and from 03N to 11N between 98W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning. Surface ridging prevails west of Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are noted N of 27N, while light to moderate northerly winds prevail elsewhere S of 27N N winds prevail over the area. NW swell continues across waters to the west of Baja. Seas range 12-14 ft N of 23N with 8-12 ft seas impacting the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Elsewhere, seas are 8-11 ft except 2-4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong to near-gale force SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun evening ahead of a decaying front. Seas will build to 8-10 ft with the strongest winds. Strong winds are expected again Mon through Tue both ahead and behind the next front. Seas will build to 5 ft with these winds. NW swell of 8 ft or greater offshore Baja California will continue through the weekend, with the 12 ft subsiding by Sun evening. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the entire offshore waters through early next week. Another set of large NW swell is expected offshore Baja California Mon night through midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near-gale NE winds and 8-10 ft seas are occurring across the Papagayo region, while moderate to fresh N-NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the far western portion of the Guatemala offshore waters with seas 12-14 ft. This is due to the the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft prevail across the rest of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the offshore waters of Colombia and Panama. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh N-NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula through Mon. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse east of the Azuero Peninsula beginning tonight through Sun. The gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to extend fresh to strong winds in the offshore waters of Guatemala through this evening. Seas will drop below 12 ft tonight in this area. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days, except moderate to fresh offshore Gulf of Fonseca through early Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NW swell producing very rough seas covers a large portion of the forecast waters. Seas ranging 12-14 ft are noted N of 04N and W of 110W. The 8 ft or greater seas extend as far south as the Equator and W of 100W. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the area. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are north of 19N. Moderate to fresh trades are north of the ITCZ to 19N. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. For the forecast, the NW swell will continue to propagate eastward across the waters through the weekend. The 12 ft seas will decay by Mon morning. The 8 ft seas will begin to diminish by early next week. However, another pair of cold fronts with large, reinforcing swell may push just south of 30N by Sun night into Mon. Fresh to strong winds north of 28N may accompany both fronts. Very rough seas associated with these fronts will likely propagate as far south as 24N through midweek. Meanwhile, high pressure and moderate to fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt. Fresh winds will prevail through Sun west of 120W as the gradient tightens. $$ ERA