000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A cold front has moved across the western Gulf of Mexico. High pressure ridge is building in the wake of the front. This scenario is currently supporting gale force NE winds over the Tehuantepec area with seas of 8 to 16 ft. Winds will increase to storm force tonight through Sat morning, then gale force winds will prevail once again through early Sun. Large seas will build with this event winds, peaking near 20 ft tonight into early Sat. Winds and seas will diminish below warning criteria by Sun morning. Tranquil weather conditions to follow through most of the week. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds over the region are expected to continue over the next several days. A cold front in the Caribbean Sea will push south across Central America through Sat night. This pattern will support brief gale force NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo Sat night into Sun morning. Seas are expected to build near 12 ft during this time. Strong winds will prevail through Mon night with tranquil conditions to follow through most of the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on both Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 06N104W. The ITCZ continues from 06N104W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N and E of 89W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning. High pressure of 1023 mb is centered off Baja California Norte. The pressure gradient between the high and troughing over western Mexico is producing fresh NW-N winds in the central and southern Gulf of California. Moderate N winds are filtering through Baja California Sur passages downwind across the waters west of the peninsula. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. NW swell continues across waters to the west of Baja producing seas of 8-10 ft, except 12 to 15 ft mainly N of 26N. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft east of 105W, except 3-5 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong to near gale force SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Sat night through Sun evening ahead of a decaying front. Seas will build to near 8 ft with the strongest winds. Fresh winds are expected again Mon through Tue both of ahead of and behind another front. Seas will build to 5 ft with these winds. NW swell of 8 ft or greater offshore Baja California will continue through the weekend, peaking to 15 ft NW of Punta Eugenia tonight. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the entire offshore waters through early next week. Another set of large NW swell is expected offshore Baja California Mon night through midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds and 4-7 ft seas are across the Papagayo region, while moderate N-NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft prevail across the whole area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh N-NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula through Mon. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse east of the Azuero Peninsula beginning tonight through the weekend. A storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will extend fresh to strong winds in the offshore waters of Guatemala tonight through Sat morning. Seas will build to 10-15 ft in this area. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days, except moderate to fresh offshore Gulf of Fonseca Sat through early Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A frontal boundary extends across the NW waters from 31N123W to 24N131W. Moderate winds prevail ahead and behind the front. High seas follow the front and is peaking near 21 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1023 mb centered off Baja California Norte near 27N120W extends a ridge southwest through 15N108W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are north of 17N and elsewhere southeast of the cold front and under the ridging. Moderate to fresh trades are north of the ITCZ to 17N. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas of 8 ft or greater in NW swell covers the waters north of about 03N and west of 105W. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the swell producing high seas moving over the NW waters will continue to propagate eastward across the waters through the weekend. Seas will subside below 20 ft tonight with the 12 ft seas decaying by Sun. The 8 ft seas will continue to cover the majority of the open waters through early next week. High pressure and moderate to fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt. Fresh winds will prevail tonight through Sun west of 120W as the gradient tightens. Another pair of cold fronts with large, reinforcing swell may push just south of 30N by early next week. Fresh to strong winds north of 28N may accompany both fronts. Very rough seas associated with these fronts will likely propagate as far south as 23N through midweek. $$ ERA