000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Gale force winds are currently prevailing over the area with seas to 8 ft. These winds will continue through Sat night, as high pressure surges across eastern Mexico behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. There has been an increasing chance for minimal storm force winds from this evening into the overnight hours. A large surrounding area of gale force winds is expected. Large seas will build with these winds, peaking near 23 ft tonight into early Sat. Fresh to strong winds will prevail through Sun morning and diminish to 20 kt or less Sun afternoon. Rather tranquil conditions are forecast for early next week with gentle to moderate onshore flow and 2-4 ft seas in the immediate Gulf. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds over the region is expected to continue over the next several days. A cold front in the Caribbean Sea will push south across Central America throughSat night. This pattern will bring brief gale force winds over the Gulf of Papagayo late Sat night into Sun morning. Seas are expected to build near 12 ft during this time. Strong winds will prevail through Mon night with tranquil conditions to follow through most of the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on both Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 07N87W. The ITCZ continues from 07N87W to 06N110W to 06N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N and E of 89W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 115W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning. Troughing extends along the Sierra Madre Occidentales of Mexico. High pressure of 1023 mb centered off Baja California Norte. The pressure gradient between the high and troughing is producing fresh NW-N winds in the central and southern Gulf of California. This was confirmed by overnight scatterometer. Moderate to fresh N winds are filtering through Baja California Sur passages downwind across the waters west of the peninsula. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. The latest pulse of NW swell across the Baja waters is producing seas of 7-11 ft. An altimeter pass overnight also showed 10-12 ft seas off the Baja California Baja Sur offshore waters. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft east of 108W, except 3-5 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to near gale force SW-W winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Sat night through Sun evening ahead of a decaying cold front. Seas may build to near 8 ft with the strong winds. Fresh winds are expected Mon through Tue both of ahead of and behind another front. Seas will build to 5 ft with these winds. NW swell of 8 ft or greater offshore Baja California will increase today, peaking to 17 ft NW of Punta Eugenia this evening. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the entire offshore waters this weekend. Another set of large NW swell is expected offshore Baja California Mon night through at least Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds and 4-7 ft seas are across the Papagayo region. Moderate N-NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft offshore Colombia, Ecuador, and SW of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are also 4-6 ft elsewhere over the Central American offshore waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over offshore Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh N-NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula today through Mon. Fresh to strong winds are possible south- southeast of the Azuero Peninsula Sat night through Sun night. A storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will extend fresh to strong winds in the offshore waters of Guatemala this evening through Sat morning. Seas will build to 10-16 ft in this area. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days, except moderate to fresh offshore Gulf of Fonseca Sat through early Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stationary front extends across the NW waters from 30N127W to 20N140W. Overnight scatterometer showed moderate to locally fresh SW winds prevailing ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are behind the front. High seas follow the front and is peaking near 26 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1023 mb centered off Baja California Norte near 30N120W extends a ridge southwest through 18N126W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are north of 16N and elsewhere southeast of the cold front and under the ridging. Moderate to fresh trades are north of the ITCZ to 16N. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas of 8 ft or greater in NW swell covers the waters north of about 03N and west of 106W. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the swell producing high seas moving over the NW waters will continue to propagate eastward across the waters through the weekend. Seas will subside below 20 ft this evening with the 12 ft seas decaying by Sun. The 8 ft seas will continue to cover the majority of the open waters through early next week. High pressure and moderate to fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt. Winds will increase fresh to strong tonight through Sun west of 125W as the gradient tightens. Another pair of cold fronts with large, reinforcing swell may push just south of 30N by early next week. Fresh to strong winds north of 28N may accompany both fronts. Very rough seas associated with these fronts will likely propagate as far south as 23N through midweek. $$ AReinhart