000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112001 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jan 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NW waters Gale Warning: The next front cold front approaching the NW waters is located over the Hawaiian Islands. This front will reach the far NW waters shortly, with gale force SW winds ahead of it already southeast of 30N140W. The front will move E-SE through the northern waters through the end of the week. Gale force winds are expected to persist ahead of the front through Thu afternoon, mainly north of 26N. Reinforcing NW swell will move in with this system, with seas building to around 28-30 ft near 30N140W by late tonight into early Thu. The front will then quickly weaken Thu afternoon through Fri, with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less by late Thu night. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N-NE winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are diminishing, with associated seas of 5-7 ft subsiding. Fresh to strong winds will return across Tehuantepec late Thu evening, quickly increasing to gale force prior to sunrise Fri, and continuing through Sat night, as high pressure surges across eastern Mexico behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are expected to reach to 40-45 kt Fri evening and overnight, with seas peaking around 18 ft late Fri night into early Sat. Fresh to strong winds will then be present Sun morning, quickly dimishing to 20 kt or less Sun afternoon. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N99W. The ITCZ extends from 06N99W to 06N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 08N between 114W and 120W, and from 06N to 10N between 122W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Elsewhere, troughing extends along the coast of the eastern Gulf of California over NW mainland Mexico. High pressure of 1025 mb located near 29N121W dominates the waters. The pressure gradient between the high and troughing is producing moderate to locally fresh winds across the Baja California offshore waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. The latest pulse of NW swell across the Baja waters is producing seas of 8-14 ft from Cabo San Lazaro northward, and 6-8 ft southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 2-4 ft inside the Gulf of California, and 4-7 ft elsewhere from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. For the forecast, outside the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will prevail across most of the Baja California waters through Thu morning. Seas will be 8-14 ft to the N of Cabo San Lazaro through this evening, and to 7-10 ft south of Cabo San Lazaro to 20N tonight through Thu morning. Similar winds will develop in the Gulf of California this evening through Fri, increasing locally to strong in the central Gulf late late tonight through late Thu night, with seas building 5-7 ft. Another pulse of NW swell will arrive offshore Baja California by early Fri behind a decaying cold front, with even larger seas expected, up to 16 ft. Seas of 8 ft or greater will spread across the entire open offshore waters this weekend. Fresh to strong SW-W winds will develop from 29.5N to 31.5N in the Gulf of California ahead of the decaying front Sat night, increasing to at least near gale force early Sun before diminishing Sun night. Another cold front may approach Baja California Norte Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft offshore Colombia, 5-7 ft offshore Ecuador and SW of the Galapagos Islands, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through the next several days, increasing to near gale early Sat through early Mon, allowing for seas to build to 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula Thu night through Sun night, briefly strong near the Azuero Peninsula early Fri. A gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will extend fresh to strong winds in the other offshore waters of Guatemala Fri evening through Sat morning, with associated seas building to 8-13 ft there. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning SE of 30N140W associated with an incoming cold front with very large seas. Elsewhere, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 29N121W, with ridging extending from southern California through the high to 20N140W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are immediately under the ridge, with moderate to fresh trades north of the ITCZ to about 15N. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, except fresh to strong in the NW waters ahead of the incoming cold front and around the associated gale area. Large seas in NW swell are north of 20N, with heights of 8-20 ft, highest near 30N140W. This NW swell is mixing with fresh NE wind waves from about 06N to 20N west of 116W to support 8-10 ft combined seas. Seas are 6-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, outside of the NW waters Gale Warning discussed in the Special Features section, pulses of NW swell will propagate through the discussion waters through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering the majority of the open waters by Sat night. High pressure and moderate to fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt, increasing to fresh to strong Fri night into Sat west of 125W as the gradient tightens. Another pair of cold fronts with reinforcing swell may push just south of 30N by the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky