000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110935 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jan 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning NW waters: The next front cold front approaching the NW waters is located NW of the area and N of the Hawaiian Islands. This front will reach the far NW waters around midday Wed, with gale force SW winds ahead of it gradually moving into the far NW waters by late morning Wed. The front will move E-SE through the northern waters through Thu night. Gale force winds are expected to persist ahead of the front through Thu afternoon, mainly north of 26N. Reinforcing NW swell will move in with this system, with seas building to around 30 ft near 30N140W by late Wed night. The front will then quickly weaken Thu afternoon and night and lift N of the area Fri morning, with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less by late Thu night. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W to 10N81W to 06N95W. The ITCZ extends from 06N95W to 08N123W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of ITCZ between 108W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front is moving across Baja California Norte and the extreme northern Gulf of California, extending from 30N115W TO 28.5N120W. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered just W of the area near 26.5N121.5W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure along the Sierra Madre Occidentales of Mexico is producing moderate to locally fresh winds across the Baja California offshore waters from Punta Eugenia to near 20N, as well as across the entrance to the Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes. The latest pulse of NW swell across the Baja waters is producing seas of 7 to 12 ft from Punta Eugenia northward and 6 to 8 ft southward to 20N. Seas are 2-4 ft inside the Gulf of California and 5-7 ft elsewhere from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. A plume of fresh to strong N winds and seas to 8 ft are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 14N due to a locally tight pressure gradient. For the forecast, the front will dissipate during the next few hours, as a new front approaches the far NW waters. The high pressure will reorganize offshore and Baja Norte today and promote moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across most of the Baja waters today through Thu morning. Seas will build to 8-14 ft to the N of Cabo San Lazaro through this evening, and to 7-10 ft south of Cabo San Lazaro to 20N tonight through Thu morning. Similar winds will develop in the Gulf of California Wed afternoon through Fri, with seas building 5-7 ft. Another pulse of NW swell will arrive offshore Baja California by early Fri with even larger seas expected, up to 16 ft. Seas of 8 ft or greater will spread across the entire open offshore waters this weekend. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong N-NE winds will continue to pulse through Wed midday. Fresh to strong winds will return across Tehuantepec late Thu evening, quickly increasing to gale force prior to sunrise Fri and continuing through Sat night as high pressure surges across eastern Mexico behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are expected to reach to 40 kt with seas peaking around 18 ft early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft offshore Colombia, 5-7 ft southwest of the Galapagos Islands, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through the next several days, increasing to near gale early Sat and early Sun, allowing for seas to build to 8-9 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula Sat night through Sun night. A gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will extend fresh to strong winds in the other offshore waters of Guatemala Fri night into early Sat with associated seas building to 8-13 ft there. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section for forecast conditions north of 25N including a gale force wind event in the northwest waters associated with a deep low pressure system well north of the area. Ahead of the front, strong SW winds have begun to move into the far NW waters W of 137W overnight, where seas are 14-15 ft in NW swell. Winds diminish to the E, where 1025 mb high pressure resides near 26.5N121.5W. Large NW swell continues to move through the waters N of 25N, where seas are 8 to 17 ft. Highest seas are behind the front now moving into Baja Norte, between 120W and 132W. Seas of 8 to 14 ft across the waters between 25N and 20N and west of 120W. South of 25N, a ridge of high pressure prevails with light to gentle anticyclonic winds to 20N. Moderate to fresh trades are south of the ridge between 18N and the ITCZ, with gentle to moderate winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. NW swell combines with NE wind waves to support 8-10 ft seas from around 05N to 20N west of 115W. Seas are 6-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, outside of the developing gale event discussed in the Special Features section, pulses of NW swell will propagate through the discussion waters through the week and into the weekend, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering the majority of the open waters by Sat night. High pressure and moderate to fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt, increasing to fresh to strong Fri night into Sat west of 130W as the gradient tightens. Another cold front with reinforcing swell may push just south of 30N by the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Stripling