840 AXPZ20 KNHC 110333 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jan 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning NW waters: The next front cold front approaching the NW waters is located NW of the area and N of the Hawaiian Islands. This front will approach the far NW waters early Wed, and gale force SW winds will develop ahead of it just southeast of 30N140W by midday Wed. The front will push through the northern waters through mid-week, with gale force winds persisting ahead of it through Thu morning, mainly north of 26N. Reinforcing NW swell will move in with this system with seas building to up to around 30 ft near 30N140W by early Thu. The front will then quickly weaken Thu afternoon and night with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less by late Thu night. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W to 10N81W to 06N95W. The ITCZ extends from 06N95W to 08N121W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 106W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front currently extends from 30N119W TO 29N123W. A 1022 mb high pressure is centered just W of the area near 24N123.5W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure along the Sierra Madre Occidentales of Mexico is producing moderate to locally fresh winds across the Baja California offshore waters from Punta Eugenia to near 20N, as well as across the entrance to the Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes. The latest pulse of NW swell across the Baja waters is producing seas of 7 to 10 ft from Punta Eugenia northward and 6 to 8 ft southward to 20N. Seas are 2-4 ft inside the Gulf of California and 5-7 ft elsewhere from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. A plume of fresh to strong N winds and seas to 7 ft are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 14.5N due to a locally tight pressure gradient. For the forecast, the front will dissipate as it reaches the Baja California Norte coast overnight. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to continue offshore Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia tonight through Wed night as high pressure reorganizes west of the area. Similar winds will develop in the Gulf of California Wed night through Fri. NW swell will build across the Baja California Norte waters tonight into early Wed, up to 14 ft northwest of Punta Eugenia. The NW swell will build seas to 8 ft all the way to 105W by Thu before decaying. Another pulse of NW swell will arrive offshore Baja California by early Fri with even larger seas expected, up to 16 ft. Seas of 8 ft or greater will spread across the entire open offshore waters this weekend. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong N-NE winds will continue to pulse through Wed morning. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will return late Thu evening, quickly increasing to gale force late Thu night through Sat night as high pressure surges across eastern Mexico behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Seas will quickly build with this gap wind event, peaking around 17 ft early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 5-7 ft are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft offshore Colombia, 5-7 ft southwest of the Galapagos Islands, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through the next several days, increasing to near gale early Sat and early Sun allowing for seas to build to 8-9 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula Sat night through Sun night. A gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will extend fresh to strong winds in the other offshore waters of Guatemala Fri night into early Sat with associated seas building to 8-13 ft there. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section for forecast conditions north of 25N including a gale force wind event in the northwest waters associated with a deep low pressure system well north of the area. The pressure gradient between parent low pressure well northwest of the area and high pressure ridging along 23N-24N is supporting fresh to strong SW winds within 120 nm southeast of 30N140W, where seas are around 15 ft. Associated NW swell is producing seas up to 19-20 ft near 30N129W with seas of 8 ft or greater across most of the waters north of 20N and west of 118W. South of 25N, a ridge of high pressure is across the waters from 20N to 25N with light to gentle anticyclonic winds under it. Moderate to fresh trades are south of the ridge 17N and the ITCZ, with gentle to moderate winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. New NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater covers the waters north of 20N, while the NW swell combines with NE wind waves to support 8-10 ft seas from around 05N to 20N west of 118W. Seas are 6-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, outside of the developing gale event discussed in the Special Features section, pulses of NW swell will propagate through the discussion waters through the week and into the weekend, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering the majority of the open waters by Sat night. High pressure and moderate to fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt, increasing to fresh to strong Fri night into Sat west of 130W as the gradient tightens. Another cold front with reinforcing swell may push just south of 30N by the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Stripling