000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102053 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jan 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NW corner Gale Warning: A dissipating cold front currently extends from 30N122W to 08.5N127W, while a pre-frontal trough reaches from 30N119W to 26N125W. Another cold front is located well west of the area near the Hawaiian Islands. The pressure gradient between parent low pressure well northwest of the area and high pressure ridging along 24N is supporting fresh to strong SW winds near 30N140W. Associated NW swell is up to 19-20 ft near 30N131W with seas of 8 ft or greater across most of the waters north of 20N and west of 118W. The next front will approach by early Wed, and gale force SW winds will develop ahead of it just southeast of 30N140W by Wed afternoon. The front will push through the northern waters through mid-week, with gale force winds persisting ahead of it through Thu morning, mainly north of 26N. Reinforcing NW swell will move in with this system with seas building to up to around 28-30 ft near 30N140W by early Thu. The front will then quickly weaken Thu afternoon and night with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less by late Thu night. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N95W. The ITCZ extends from 06N95W to 07N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 105W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A plume of fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas to 8 ft are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Otherwise, a surface ridge prevails across the Baja California offshore waters in advance of a dissipating cold front. Winds are moderate or weaker away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A set of NW swell has arrived ahead of the front with 7-10 ft seas offshore Baja California, highest northwest of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, the front will dissipate as it reaches the Baja California Norte coast this evening. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to develop offshore Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia tonight through Wed night as high pressure reorganizes west of the area. Similar winds will develop in the Gulf of California Wed night through Fri. NW swell will build across the Baja California Norte waters tonight into early Wed, up to 14 ft northwest of Punta Eugenia. The NW swell will build seas to 8 ft all the way to 105W by Thu before decaying. Another set of NW swell will arrive offshore Baja California by early Fri with even larger seas expected, up to 16 ft. Seas of 8 ft or greater will spread across the entire open offshore waters this weekend. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong N-NE winds will continue to pulse through Wed morning. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will return late Thu evening, quickly increasing to gale force late Thu night through Sat night as high pressure surges across eastern Mexico behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Seas will quickly build with this gap wind event, peaking around 17 ft early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 5-7 ft are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft offshore Colombia, 5-7 ft southwest of the Galapagos Islands, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through the next several days, increasing to near gale early Sat and early Sun allowing for seas to build to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula Sat night through Sun night. A gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will extend fresh to strong winds in the other offshore waters of Guatemala Fri night into early Sat with associated seas building to 8-13 ft there. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section for details on conditions north of 25N including a gale force wind event in the northwest waters due to a deep low pressure system north of the area. South of 25N, a ridge of high pressure is across the waters from 20N to 25N with light to gentle anticyclonic winds under it. Moderate to fresh trades are south of the ridge and north of the ITCZ, with gentle to moderate winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. A set of NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater covers the waters north of 20N, while the NW swell combines with NE wind waves to support 8-10 ft seas from around 05N to 20N west of 118W. Seas are 6-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, outside of the developing gale event discussed in the Special Features section, pulses of NW swell will propagate through the discussion waters through the week and into the weekend, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering the majority of the open waters by Sat night. High pressure and moderate to fresh winds will dominate the trade wind belt, increasing to fresh to strong Fri night into Sat west of 130W as the gradient tightens. Another cold front with reinforcing swell may push just south of 30N by the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky