000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100335
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A complex Pacific low pressure system located well NE of the 
Hawaiian Islands extends a cold front across the N portions of 
the area from 30N124W to 24N137W. Gale force westerly winds that 
were occurring NW of the front this afternoon have lifted N of 
30N. The front will move E and gradually dissipate by Tue night. 
Another deep low pressure system across the north Pacific will 
bring the next cold front and gale force winds over the NW 
waters Wed morning through late Wed evening. Peak seas behind 
this next frontal system are expected to reach 30 ft across the 
far NW waters Wed night through Thu morning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N77W to 09.5N85W to 06N95W. 
The ITCZ continues from 06N95W to 08N123W to beyond 06.5N140W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N of 
the ITCZ between 104W and 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the Baja California offshore 
waters, and has shifted slightly SW today in advance of an
approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh SW to S winds have 
shifted into the outer waters of Baja Norte, while gentle to
moderate northerly winds prevail elsewhere across the remaining
Baja waters to 20N. Seas have continued to subside across the
Baja waters S of Punta Eugenia, and are 6-7 ft. New NW swell is
moving into Baja Norte waters raising seas to 7 to 11 ft.
Moderate NW winds are noted across the southern Gulf of 
California, extending to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. Seas 
across the middle and southern Gulf are in the 2 to 4 ft range. 
Strong northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north
of 14.5N, with seas 6-7 ft. The remainder of the area is 
dominated by light to variable winds.

For the forecast, high pressure will weaken through Tue as the
cold front approaches the Baja Norte waters. The front is 
expected to dissipate as it reaches the Baja Norte coast Tue 
evening. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected 
to develop across the Baja waters Tue evening through Wed as the 
high pressure reorganizes W of the area. NW swell will build 
slightly across the Baja California Norte waters tonight, while 
seas remain at 6-8 ft or less elsewhere. New NW swell will begin
to build across the regional waters Tue night through mid week. 
Strong northerly winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
each night through mid week. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec 
gale force gap wind event is expected on Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E winds, and seas of 6-7 ft continue across the Gulf
of Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas 
of 3-4 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas 4 to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo 
region will pulse to strong each night through mid week, increase
to near 30 kt Fri night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue. NW swell impacting 
the area waters will subside tonight through Wed night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more the next gale warning
over the NW waters. 

Presently, a cold front extends into the area waters from 
30N124W to 24N137W. A 1022 mb high center reside SE of the front 
near 24N121W. Strong SW to W winds are occurring within 120 nm SE
of the front and to the E of 131W. Strong westerly winds to 30 
kt prevail farther W, across the NW waters, to the W of 130W. 
Seas are currently 12 to 20 ft in NW swell across these waters, 
and are highest across the far NW.

Elsewhere, surface ridging extends WSW from the high to beyond
140W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure 
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 18N and west of 
115W. The recent large NW to N swell continues to subside, with 
seas of 7-10 ft over much of the discussion waters. New NW swell
is propagating over the northern waters, with seas in the 9-12 
ft range between 25N and the cold front. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, seas will continue to subside S of 20N tonight.
Successive sets of NW swell will propagate through the discussion
waters through the week, with SW to W gales developing Wed as
discussed above. Otherwise, high pressure and moderate winds 
will dominate the trade wind belt.

$$
Stripling