000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090953 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jan 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A complex Pacific low pressure system located well NNE of the Hawaiian Islands extends a cold front across the far NW portions of the area from 30N134W to 28N140W. Gale force SW winds are occurring within 90 nm SE of the front, where seas are 15 to 18 ft. Strong SW winds prevail elsewhere within 240 nm SE of the front to 124W. The front will move E-SE through Mon, with gale force winds ahead of the front lifting N of the area by sunrise. Gale force westerly winds are then expected to briefly sweep across the waters N of 29N and W of 134W this afternoon before lifting N of the area, while the front and associated strong W winds continue moving E-SE. Seas behind the front are expected to build to 15-20 ft this afternoon. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N84W to 05.5N94W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N94W to 07N116W to 06N127W to beyond 07N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 117W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge prevails across the Baja California offshore waters, with a 1022 mb high pressure center near 27N120W. NW swell dominating the regional waters the past few days continues to subside. Associated seas range 6-9 ft across the open waters off Baja Mexico to Cabo Corrientes. Farther south, seas are 6-8 ft across the offshore waters from Cabo Corrientes to the Tehuantepec area, and 8 to 9 ft across the far outer waters. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are noted west of the Baja California peninsula, while moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of California, extending to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. Seas across the Gulf are in the 3 to 5 ft range. Strong northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 14.5N, with seas near 8 ft. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the area through Tue before repositioning offshore of Baja Norte Wed. New NW swell will enter Baja Norte waters tonight and dominate seas through Mon night. Strong northerly winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through mid week. Large NW swell will move into the Baja waters Tue night to raise seas to 12-15 ft off Baja Norte. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is expected on Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong each night through the week. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Large NW swell offshore of southern Mexico the past few days has reached the local waters tonight, with outer waters expected to peak at 7-8 ft. Seas will subside Mon night through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more the gale warning over the NW waters. Surface ridging extends NE to SW across the waters N of 20N, centered on a 1020 mb high near 27N120W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 19N and west of 115W. The recent large NW to N swell continues to move through the regional waters and gradually subside. Peak seas of 11-13 ft are occurring south of 12N and between 96W and 112W. Seas elsewhere across the trade wind zone are 8-10 ft. Across the far N waters, a cold front described above extends from 30N134W to 28N140W. Strong to gale force SW to W winds are N of 24.5N and W of 124W. New NW swell across this area is producing seas of 12-18 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, seas will continue to subside S of 24N overnight through Mon. New NW swell over the NW waters will dominate the northern water tonight before a reinforcing pulse of NW swell arrives early Mon associated with the gale force frontal system. Peak seas are expected to reach 20 ft. This next system will impact the NW waters Mon through Tue. Another similar frontal system is expected to move through the NW waters Wed through Thu, bringing SW to W gales, and seas potentially to 30 ft. Weak high pressure and moderate winds will dominate the trade wind belt. $$ Stripling