000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081425
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jan 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1420 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The next Pacific low pressure system that will impact the region
is currently located well north of the Hawaiian Islands. This
system and associated front will sweep across the far NW waters 
late today through Mon, supporting strong SW winds north of 25N 
and west of 125W through tonight. Seas will build to 17 ft or 
higher. Gales will develop briefly ahead of the front early Mon, 
and then behind the front Mon afternoon before the low and front 
lift NE of the region.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N72W to 06N91W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N91W to 06N120W to beyond 05N140W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ
between 113W and 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Baja California offshore 
waters. Large, subsiding, NW swell dominates the regional 
waters. Associated seas ranges from 8-9 ft offshore the Baja
California peninsula to 10-12 ft offshore of Cabo Corrientes.  
Moderate NW winds are noted west of the Baja California peninsula
as well as across most of the Gulf of California, extending to 
the waters off Cabo Corrientes. Seas across the Gulf are in the 3
to 5 ft range. Strong northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec north of 15N with seas near 8 ft. The remainder of 
the area is dominated by light to gentle winds.

For the forecast, large NW swell off of Baja California Sur and SW
Mexico will gradually subside from N to S today. Meanwhile new 
NW swell will enter Baja Norte waters tonight. Strong northerly 
winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through 
mid week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are 
occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly 
winds and seas of 4-5 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 4 to 6 ft 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo 
region will pulse to strong each night through mid week. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama 
through Tue. Large NW swell offshore of Mexico will impact the 
offshore waters of Central America into early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on an upcoming gale
warning over the NW waters. 

Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N
of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. Large NW to N swell 
continues across the regional waters, with peak seas of 10-14 ft 
now south of 16N and W of 110W. Across the far N waters, strong 
SW to S winds are N of 27N and W of 135W. New NW swell across 
this area is producing seas of 10-14 ft. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail south of the ITCZ. 

For the forecast, the large NW swell has already begun to subside
from N to S. A fresh set of NW swell over the NW waters will 
dominate the northern waters today before yet another pulse of 
NW swell arrives early Mon associated with the gale force 
frontal system. This next system will impact the NW waters Mon 
through Tue. Another similar frontal system is expected to move 
through the NW waters Wed through Thu. Weak high pressure and 
moderate winds will dominate the trade wind belt.

$$
AL