000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072008
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2010 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The next low pressure system and associated front will sweep 
across the far NW waters Sun, supporting strong SW winds north of
26N and west of 130W through Sun night, and raising seas to 17 
ft or higher. Gales will develop both ahead of, and behind, this
front on Mon.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N90W to beyond 04N140W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 
110W and 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Baja California offshore
waters. Large NW swell dominates the regional waters, with seas 
of 10 to 14 ft across all of the Baja California offshore waters
extending southward to 16N, with highest seas off of Baja Sur. 
Moderate winds are noted across most of the Gulf of California, 
with gentle to moderate NW winds across the near shore waters 
from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Escondido. Seas across the Gulf 
are in the 4 to 5 ft range. Strong northerly winds prevail over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 13N with seas to 9 ft. The 
remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds. 

For the forecast, large NW swell off the Baja California 
peninsula will briefly subside through early Sun before another 
set of large NW swell propagates into these waters late Sun. 
Moderate to fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California will 
diminish tonight. Strong northerly winds will pulse over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec each night through next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are 
occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly 
winds and seas of 4-5 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas of less than 6
ft prevail.

For the forecast, strong winds across the Papagayo region will 
diminish to moderate to fresh by tonight. Moderate to fresh 
northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight. 
Moderate NW swell will impact the offshore waters of Central 
America into early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, with a cold front over
the far NW waters. Large NW to N swell is moving through the 
regional waters, with seas in the 10-15 ft range over much of the
waters west of 110W. Across the far NW waters, strong SW are 
ahead of the front. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds 
prevail N of the ITCZ to 17N with gentle to moderate winds south 
of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, the large NW swell will briefly subside this 
weekend, with successive sets of NW swell propagating into the 
area through the upcoming week.

$$
AL