000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071420
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jan 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1420 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The next low pressure system and associated front will sweep 
across the far NW waters Sun, supporting strong SW winds north of
26N and west of 130W through Sun night, and raising seas to 17 
ft or higher. Gales will develop both ahead of, and behind, this
front on Mon.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N90W to 07N130W to beyond 05N140W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ
between 100W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Baja California offshore
water. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters off
Baja California. Large NW swell continues to dominate the 
regional waters, with seas of 11 to 16 ft across all of the Baja
California offshore waters extending southward to 16N, with 
highest seas off of Baja Sur. Moderate to fresh northerly winds 
are noted across most of the Gulf of California, with light to 
moderate NW winds across the near shore waters from Cabo 
Corrientes to Puerto Escondido. Seas across the Gulf are in the 4
to 5 ft range. Strong northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec north of 13N with seas to 9 ft. The remainder of the
area is dominated by light to gentle winds. 

For the forecast, large NW swell will propagate southeastward 
through Sun, with seas in the 12-18 ft range off central and 
southern Baja California tonight. Large swell will reach the 
waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero Sat through Sat night. 
Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of 
California through late today. Strong northerly winds will pulse
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. Seas in these waters are 6-7 ft. Moderate 
northerly winds and seas of 4-5 ft are present in the Gulf of 
Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas of 
less than 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, strong winds will across the Papagayo region 
will diminish to moderate to fresh by tonight. Moderate to fresh 
northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Sun. 
Moderate NW swell will impact the offshore waters of Central 
America into early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, with a cold front over
the far NW waters. Large NW to N swell is moving through the 
regional waters, with seas in the 10-15 ft range over much of the
waters north of 06N and west of 110W. Across the far NW waters, 
strong SW are ahead of the front. Meanwhile, moderate to locally
fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ to 17N with gentle to moderate
winds south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, the large NW swell will continue spreading 
across the basin, with seas to 10 ft reaching the equator today.
Seas will briefly subside this weekend, with successive sets of 
NW swell propagating into the area through the upcoming week.

$$
AL