000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070313 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jan 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 06.5N87W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N87W to 06N122W to beyond 07N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 130W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the Baja California offshore waters, centered on 1024 mb high pressure near 30.5N123W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are to the east of 120W. The remnants of a dissipated cold front can be seen in satellite imagery just offshore of Cabo San Lazaro extending WSW into the open Pacific. This boundary marks the southern extent of the moderate winds. Very large NW swell continues to dominate the regional waters tonight. Seas are estimated at 12 to 18 ft across the north and central Baja near and offshore waters and extend to beyond 120W. Meanwhile, seas range 10 to 17 ft over the Baja California Sur waters and extend southward to 20N. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted across most of the Gulf of California, with moderate winds extending to just W of Cabo Corrientes. Light winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas in the central and southern Gulf are 3 to 5 ft. Strong northerly winds to 30 kt prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 14N with seas up to 10 ft. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 6-8 ft off the southern coast of Mexico. For the forecast, very large NW swell will continue to propagate southeastward through Sun, with seas in the 12-18 ft range off central and southern Baja California waters prevailing tonight. Large swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero Sat into Sat night. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California through late Sat. Strong northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue improving through Sat afternoon. Strong winds are expected to pulse each night across the Tehuantepec area through next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region, and will strengthen slightly and extend westward to 89W tonight. Seas in these waters are 6-7 ft. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-5 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas of less than 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, strong winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Sat, then diminishing to moderate to fresh by Sat night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Sun night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days. Moderate long period NW swell will impact the northern offshore waters of Central America this weekend and into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, ahead of an approaching cold front to the NW that dips to 31N136W. Very large swell is moving through the regional waters north of 07N tonight. This morning's satellite altimeter data show the highest seas of 22 ft along and north of 24N122W. 12 ft seas currently reach as far south as 08N and as far east as the south central Baja California coast. 8 ft swell has reached the equator. Peak wave periods are generally 17-20 seconds. Across the far NW waters, a cold front is approaching from the NW, with strong SW winds moving into the area north of 28N and west of 131W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ to 18N with gentle to moderate winds south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the large NW swell will continue spreading across the basin, with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 07N by tonight. 10 ft swell will reach the equator on Sat. The next low pressure system and associated front will continue moving eastward and north of 30N, supporting strong SW winds north of 28N and west of 130W through tonight. A stronger system will follow Sun into Mon. This second system may generate gale force winds north of 27N and west of 130W and bring another round of large swell across the basin. $$ Stripling