109 AXPZ20 KNHC 061553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jan 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure behind the cold front in the Gulf of Mexico continues to force a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to near gale force northerly winds prevail over the Gulf area N of 13N, with gale force occurring N of 14.5N. The gale force winds are expected to continue through late this morning, then strong to near-gale winds will gradually diminishing through Sat afternoon. Seas of 10-12 ft will persist through this afternoon. A much smaller area of strong gap winds are expected to return again by Sat night into Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on both warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 07N87W. The ITCZ continues from 07N87W to beyond 06N140W. No significant convection is noted along the boundaries at this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Surface ridging prevails across the area. Moderate N to NE winds are to the east of 120W. Very large NW swell continues to build across the Baja offshore waters, generated from the much advertised deep cyclone that moved into Northern California on Thu. Seas are estimated at 10 to 20 ft east through southeast of Guadalupe Island, and 18 to 22 ft west and northwest of Guadalupe Island. Meanwhile, seas range 7 to 12 ft over the Baja California Sur nearshore waters and 14 to 20 ft across the waters farther offshore. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted across the Baja waters south of Punta Eugenia, and in the southern Gulf of California, with moderate winds extending to just W of Cabo Corrientes. Light winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas in the southern Gulf are 3 to 5 ft. Strong to minimal gale force northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 13N with seas up to 12 ft. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 6-8 ft off the southern coast of Mexico. For the forecast, very high seas will continue to propagate southeastward over the next few days. Very large NW swell is expected through Sat with seas over 20 ft off Baja California Norte through late this morning, and in the 12-18 ft range off Baja California Sur late this morning through early tonight. Large swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero late Fri night into Sat night. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California through late Sat. Gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will drop below gale force late this morning, with conditions improving by Sat afternoon. Strong winds are expected to return again by Sat night into Sun morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, strong winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Sat, then diminishing to fresh winds through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Sun night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days. Moderate long period NW swell will impact the northern offshore waters of Central America this weekend and into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Very large swell from this system is moving through the regional waters north of 14N tonight. Recent satellite altimeter data show the highest seas of 20 to 24 ft are found north of 18N between 115W and 132W. 12 ft seas currently reach as far south as 12N and as far east as the central Baja California coast. 8 ft swell has reached the equator. Peak wave periods are generally 17-19 seconds. Across the far NW waters, a cold front is approaching from the NW, with strong SW winds moving into the area north of 29N and west of 134W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ to 18N with gentle to moderate winds south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the large NW swell will continue spreading across the basin, with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 07N by tonight. 10 ft swell will reach the equator on Sat. Another deep low pressure system and front will pass north of the area today, bringing strong winds north of 28N and west of 130W. A stronger system will follow Sun into Mon. This second system may generate gale force winds north of 27N and west of 130W and bring another round of large swell across the basin. $$ ERA