000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060952 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure behind the cold front in the Gulf of Mexico continues to force a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to near gale force northerly winds prevail over the Gulf area N of 13N, with gale force occurring N of 14.5N. The gale force winds are expected to continue through mid morning before gradually diminishing through early Sat. Seas have built to 10-12 ft tonight and will persist through Fri morning. Strong northerly winds will continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midday Sat before dropping below 20 kt. A much smaller area of strong gap winds are expected to return again by Sat night into Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on both warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N72W to 05N94W. The ITCZ continues from 05N94W to 06.5N121W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N E of 82W to coast of Colombia. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 09.5N to 11N between 112W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong cold front extends across the eastern Pacific, from Baja California Norte and the extreme NW portion of the Gulf of California, southwestward and just offshore of Punta Eugenia across the Baja Norte offshore waters to near 24N120W. Moderate N to NE winds are behind the front to the east of 120W. Very large NW swell continues to build across the Baja offshore waters, generated from the much advertised deep cyclone that moved into Northern California on Thu. Seas are estimated at 10 to 20 ft east through southeast of Guadalupe Island, and 18 to 24 ft west and northwest of Guadalupe Island. Meanwhile, seas range 7 to 12 ft over the Baja California Sur nearshore waters and 14 to 20 ft across the waters farther offshore. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted across the Baja waters south of Punta Eugenia, and in the southern Gulf of California, with moderate winds extending to just W of Cabo Corrientes. Light winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas in the southern Gulf are 3 to 5 ft. Strong to minimal gale force northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 13N with seas up to 12 ft. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 6-8 ft off the southern coast of Mexico. For the forecast, the cold front will continue moving southeastward over the Baja California offshore waters, reaching along 25N and weakening by midday, then becoming ill defined across the waters of Baja Sur by evening. Very high seas associated with this front will continue to propagate southeastward over the next few days. Very large NW swell is expected through Sat with seas over 20 ft off Baja California Norte through late this morning, and in the 12-18 ft range off Baja California Sur late this morning through early tonight. Large swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero late Fri night into Sat night. Behind the front, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California from Fri through Sat. Strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have increased to gale force overnight. Winds will drop below gale force Fri morning with conditions improving by Sat. Strong winds are expected to return again by Sat night into Sun morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, strong winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Sat, then diminishing to fresh winds through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Sun night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days. Moderate long period NW swell will impact the northern offshore waters of Central America this weekend and into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong cold front extends across the eastern Pacific from just offshore of Punta Eugenia, Mexico to 24N120W then becomes near stationary to 20N140W. Behind the front, moderate N to NE winds prevail within 150 nm of the front. Ahead of the front, winds have weakened to gentle. This front is connected to a storm-force low center that has moved inland across California Thu. Very large swell from this system is moving through the regional waters north of 14N tonight. Recent satellite altimeter data show the highest seas south of 30N are 25 to 28 ft, found north of 24N between 119W and 132W. 12 ft seas currently reach as far south as 14N and as far east as the central Baja California coast. 8 ft swell has reached the equator. Peak wave periods are generally 17-19 seconds. Across the far NW waters, a cold front is approaching from the NW, with strong SW winds moving into the area north of 29N and west of 135W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ to 18N with gentle to moderate winds south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, this large NW swell will continue spreading across the basin, with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 07N by Fri night. 10 ft swell will reach the equator by Sat into Sat night. Another deep low pressure system and front will pass north of the area Fri, bringing strong winds north of 28N and west of 130W. A stronger system will follow Sun into Mon. This second system may generate gale force winds north of 27N and west of 130W and bring another round of large swell across the basin. $$ Stripling