000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060303 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jan 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure behind the cold front in the Gulf of Mexico has recently triggered a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to near gale force northerly winds prevail over the Gulf area N of 13.5N. Winds have increased to gale force this evening in a small area N of 15N and area expected to expand modestly and continue through Fri morning. Seas will build to 10-12 ft tonight through Fri morning. Strong northerly winds will continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat morning. Strong gap winds could return once again by Sat night into Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on both warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N72W to 05N96W. The ITCZ continues from 05N96W to 06.5N116W, then resumes near 07N125W to 05.5N132W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09.5N to 11.5N between 110W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong cold front extends across the eastern Pacific from Baja California Norte southwestward across the Baja Norte offshore waters, crossing 30N117W to near 22N128W. and beginning to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters. Moderate NW winds are behind the front to the east of 120W. Very large NW swell is moving into the Baja offshore waters, generated from the much advertised deep cyclone that moved into Northern California today. Seas are estimated at 10 to 17 ft east through southeast of Guadalupe Island, and 17 to 22 ft west and northwest of Guadalupe Island. Meanwhile, seas range 7 to 9 ft over the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Moderate northerly winds are noted across the Baja waters south of Punta Eugenia, and in the southern Gulf of California, extending to just NW of Cabo Corrientes. Light winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas in the southern Gulf are 3 to 5 ft. Strong to minimal gale force northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 13.5N with seas up to 10 ft. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 5-8 ft off the southern coast of Mexico. For the forecast, a cold front will continue moving eastward over the Baja California offshore waters, reaching the northern Gulf of California and Punta Eugenia tonight. The front will weaken by Fri morning. Very high seas associated with this front north of 35N will continue to propagate south of 30N over the next few days. Very large NW swell is expected through early Sat with seas building to over 20 ft off Baja California Norte, and the 12-18 ft range off Baja California Sur by tonight. The swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero late Fri night into Sat night. Behind the front, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California from Fri through Sat. Strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have increased to gale force this evening. Winds will drop below gale force by Fri morning with conditions improving by Sat. Strong winds could return once again by Sat night into Sun morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 6-7 ft. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, strong winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Sat with fresh winds continuing through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Sun night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days. Moderate long period NW swell will impact the northern offshore waters of Central America this weekend and into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong cold front extends across the eastern Pacific from 30N117W to 22N128W then becomes stationary to 20N140W. Behind the front, moderate N to NE winds prevail within 150 nm of the front. Ahead of the front, winds have weakened to gentle. This front is connected to a storm-force low center that has moved inland across California today. Very large swell from this system is moving through the regional waters north of 20N this evening. The highest seas south of 30N are 25 to 28 ft, found north of 24N between 120W and 132W. 12 ft seas currently reach as far south as 14N and as far east as the Baja California Norte coast. 8 ft swell has reached the equator. Wave periods are generally 15-18 seconds. Across the far NW waters, a cold front is approaching from the NW, with strong SW winds moving into the area north of 29N and west of 137W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ to 18N with gentle to moderate winds south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, this large NW swell will continue spreading across the basin, with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 07N by Fri night. 10 ft swell will reach the equator by Sat into Sat night. Another system will pass north of the area Fri, bringing strong winds north of 28N and west of 130W. A stronger system will follow Sun into Mon. This second system may generate gale force winds north of 27N and west of 130W and bring another round of large swell across the basin. $$ Stripling