000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jan 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure behind the cold front in the Gulf of Mexico has triggered a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to near gale force northerly winds prevail over the region this morning. Winds will increase to gale force this evening and continue through Fri morning. Seas will build to 8-10 ft Thu night through Fri. Strong northerly winds will continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat night and improve by Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on both warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N100W. The ITCZ continues from 07N100W to a low pres near 08N117W 1012 mb to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 107W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong cold front extends across the eastern Pacific just to the west of the Baja California offshore waters. Increasing moderate to locally fresh are observed in the offshore waters of NW Mexico as this front approaches. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted in the southern Gulf of California. Strong to near gale force northerly winds have begun to funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds. Seas are 7-9 ft off Baja California Norte and 6-8 ft off Baja California Sur, with both areas in NW swell. Seas are 1-2 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 2-4 ft in the southern Gulf. Seas are generally 4-6 ft off the southern coast of Mexico, with the exception of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas have likely reached 7 or 8 ft, on a building trend. For the forecast, southerly winds off Baja California Norte will increase to fresh to strong today as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will reach the offshore waters this afternoon, then begin weakening as it reaches the northern Gulf of California and Punta Eugenia tonight. Phenomenal seas north of 35N will propagate south of 30N as very high NW swell Thu afternoon through early Sat, with seas in the 15-20 ft range off Baja California Norte, and the 12-17 ft range off Baja California Sur. The swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero late Fri night into Sat night. Behind the front, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California Fri through Sat. Strong northerly gap winds in the gulf of Tehuantepec will continue into early Sat. A period of gale winds is likely tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 5-6 ft. Fresh northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days. Moderate long period NW swell will impact the northern offshore waters of Central America this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong cold front extends across the eastern Pacific from 30N123W to 20N139W. Behind the front, winds are fresh to strong from the N-NW. Ahead of the front, winds are fresh to strong from the SW. This front is connected to a hurricane force located near 40N134W. South of 30N, winds have decreased below gale force as the main concern shifts to an enormous area of very high swell that is gradually propagating through the basin. The highest seas are nearly 30 ft, found near 30N, between 130W and 140W. 12 ft seas currently reach as far south as 20N and as far east as 121W. 8 ft swell has reached the equator. Wave periods are generally 14-16 seconds outside of the strong winds. For the forecast, NW swell from the hurricane force low north of the area will spread across the basin with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 09N by late Fri. 10 ft swell will reach the equator by Sunday. Another system will pass north of the area Fri, bringing strong winds north of 28N and west of 130W. A stronger system will follow Sun into Mon. This second system may generate gale force winds north of 27N and west of 125W, generating another round of high swell across the basin. $$ AKR