000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050842
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jan 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: high pressure behind the cold 
front in the Gulf of Mexico has triggered a gap wind event in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. A recent scatterometer pass found strong to
near gale force northerly winds have begun this morning. These
conditions are expected to persist through mid-day Sat. A period
of gale force winds is likely this evening through Fri morning. 
Seas will build to 8-10 ft Thu night through Fri. Conditions will
improve late Sat.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on
both warnings.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W 
to 08N95W. The ITCZ continues from 08N95W to 08N140W. A 1012 mb 
low pressure is analyzed along the ITCZ near 09N115W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed within 120 nm of the low. Similar
convection is also observed from 06N to 10N, between 128W and 
138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A strong cold front extends across the eastern Pacific from 
30N123W to 20N139W. Increasing moderate southerly winds are 
observed in the offshore waters of NW Mexico as this front 
approaches. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted in the
southern Gulf of California. Strong to near gale force northerly
winds have begun to funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this 
morning. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to
gentle winds. Seas are 7-9 ft off Baja California Norte and 6-8 
ft off Baja California Sur, with both areas in NW swell. Seas are
1-2 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 2-4 ft in the 
southern Gulf. Seas are generally 4-6 ft off the southern coast 
of Mexico, with the exception of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where 
seas have likely reached 7 or 8 ft, on a building trend.

For the forecast, southerly winds off Baja California Norte will
increase to fresh to strong today as a cold front approaches 
from the west. The cold front will reach the offshore waters 
this afternoon, then begin weakening as it reaches the northern 
Gulf of California and Punta Eugenia tonight. Phenomenal seas 
north of 35N will propagate south of 30N as very high NW swell 
Thu afternoon through early Sat, with seas in the 15-20 ft range 
off Baja California Norte, and the 12-17 ft range off Baja 
California Sur. The swell will reach the waters off Cabo 
Corrientes and Guerrero late Fri night into Sat night. Behind the
front, fresh NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California 
Fri through Sat. Strong northerly gap winds in the gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue into early Sat. A period of gale 
winds is likely tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters
are 5-6 ft. Fresh northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present
in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 
slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue in the 
Papagayo region through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh northerly 
winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the 
weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue 
elsewhere for the next several days. Moderate long period NW 
swell will impact the northern offshore waters of Central America
this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong cold front extends across the eastern Pacific from 
30N123W to 20N139W. Behind the front, winds are fresh to strong
from the N-NW. Ahead of the front, winds are fresh to strong 
from the SW. This front is connected to a hurricane force located
near 40N134W. South of 30N, winds have decreased below gale 
force as the main concern shifts to an enormous area of very high
swell that is gradually propagating through the basin. The 
highest seas are nearly 30 ft, found near 30N, between 130W and 
140W. 12 ft seas currently reach as far south as 20N and as far 
east as 121W. 8 ft swell has reached the equator. Wave periods 
are generally 14-16 seconds outside of the strong winds.

For the forecast, NW swell from the hurricane force low north of
the area will spread across the basin with 12 ft seas reaching 
as far south as 09N by late Fri. 10 ft swell will reach the 
equator by Sunday. Another system will pass north of the area 
Fri, bringing strong winds north of 28N and west of 130W. A 
stronger system will follow Sun into Mon. This second system may 
generate gale force winds north of 27N and west of 125W,
generating another round of high swell across the basin.

$$
Flynn