000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050259 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0255 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning north of 27N: A 956 mb hurricane force low pressure centered near 40N135W will continue to move northeastward, dragging a strong cold front that extends southward and southwestward from this low to 30N129W to 21N140W. Recent ASCAT satellite data indicate that gale force winds are occurring ahead of and behind the front north of 28N between 127W-140W. Seas in these waters are 16 to 29 ft. The cold front will move southeastward, reaching from 30N120W to 22N130W to 20N140W early Thu and from 30N112W to 23N120W to 21N128W early Fri, then weakening and dissipating late Fri. Gale force winds will continue through this evening, mainly north of 28N between 125W and 140W. Very large NW swell has moved in across the northern waters, with seas peaking near 30 ft this evening along 30N. Seas of 20 ft or greater will reach as far south as 24N through Thu evening, and as far east as 119W Thu night. Winds will diminish across the area Thu afternoon as high pressure moves in behind the front. However, large NW to N swell will continue to progress southeastward across the forecast waters through Sat, bringing 13 ft seas off Cabo San Lucas and 12 ft seas as far south as 08N120W. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build behind the cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico resulting in the tightening of the pressure gradient across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to near gale force N winds are expected tonight through early Sat. A period of minimal gale force winds, especially in gusts, is likely on Thu evening. Seas will build to 10-11 ft on Thu night into early Fri. Conditions will improve late Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on both warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 08N94W. The ITCZ continues from 08N94W to 08N140W. A 1011 mb low is analyzed along the ITCZ near 08N113W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm of the low pressure center. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 07N to 10N, between 126W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong cold front extends from 30N125W to 20N140W across the eastern Pacific. As this front approaches, moderate southerly winds are increasing off the NW coast of Mexico. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted in the southern Gulf of California. Moderate northerly winds have begun to funnel into the Gulf of Tehunatepec tonight. The remainder of the area is dominated by light to gentle winds. Seas are 7-10 ft off Baja California Norte, and 6-8 ft off Baja California Sur, in NW swell. Seas are 1-2 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 2-4 ft in the southern Gulf. Seas are generally 4-6 ft off the southern coast of Mexico, though a building trend has begun in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, southerly winds off Baja California Norte will increase to fresh to strong tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will reach those waters Thu, then begin weakening as it reaches the northern Gulf of California and Punta Eugenia Thu night. Phenomenal seas north of 35N will propagate south of 30N as very high W to NW swell Thu afternoon through early Sat, with seas in the 15-20 ft range off Baja California Norte, and the 13-18 ft range off Baja California Sur. The swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero late Fri night into Sat night. Behind the front, fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected over the Gulf of California Fri through Sat. Northerly gap winds in the gulf of Tehuantepec will quickly increase to strong to near gale force by early Thu and continue into early Sat. A brief period of minimal gale winds, especially in gusts, is likely Thu evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 88W. Seas in these waters are 5-6 ft. Fresh northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning over the NW waters. Strong winds associated with the system over the northern waters are occurring north of 25N and west of 120W. Seas are 12 to 29 ft in these waters, highest NW. Moderate easterly breezes and seas of 7-9 ft are prevalent from the ITCZ to 17N and west of 110W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, NW to N swell from the hurricane force low north of the area will spread across the basin with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 10N by late Fri. 9 ft swell will reach the equator by Saturday. Another system will pass north of the area Fri, bringing strong winds north of 28N and west of 130W. A stronger system will follow Sun into Mon. This second system may generate gale force winds north of 28N and west of 125W with another round of high swell across the basin. $$ Flynn