000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jan 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning north of 27N: A 956 mb hurricane force low pressure centered near 39N137W will continue to move northeastward, dragging a strong cold front that extends southward and southwestward from this low to 30N132W to 23.5N140W. Gale-force winds are occurring ahead of and behind the front north of 27N between 129W-140W. Seas in these waters are 16 to 26 ft. The cold front will move southeastward, reaching from 30N120W to 22N130W to 20N140W early Thu and from 30N112W to 23N120W to 21N130W early Fri, then weakening and dissipating late Fri. Gale force winds will continue east of the front through today, and west of the front through this evening, mainly north of 27N between 125W and 140W. The front will also usher in very large NW swell across the northern waters, with seas peaking near 30 ft today into early Thu along 30N. Seas of 20 ft or greater will reach as far south as 24N tonight through Thu evening, and as far east as 119W Thu night. Winds will diminish across the area Thu night as high pressure moves in behind the front. However, large NW to N swell will continue to progress southeastward across the forecast waters through Sat, bringing 13 ft seas off Cabo San Lucas and 12 ft seas as far south as 08N120W. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build behind the cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico resulting in the tightening of the pressure gradient across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Minimal gale force winds, especially in gusts, are likely in the Tehuantepec region on Thu evening for a few hours. Otherwise, strong to near gale force winds will prevail tonight through early Sat. Seas will build to 10-11 ft on Thu night into Fri. Conditions will improve late Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on both warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N94W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N94W to 08N108W, then continues W of a 1011 mb low pres from 08N112W to 09N130W to 08N140W. The 1011 mb low pres is centered near 09N110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 81W and 86W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The offshore waters of Mexico are under a weak pressure gradient that is anchored by a 1020 mb high pressure system located just west of the Baja California peninsula. This pattern supports light to gentle winds and seas of 1-2 ft in the northern and central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present in the southern Gulf of California. Gentle winds and seas of 7-10 ft prevail in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Gentle winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found in the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 5-6 ft are evident in the offshore waters of SW Mexico. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle winds and 3-6 ft seas are prevalent. For the forecast, southerly winds off Baja California Norte will increase to fresh to strong late today as a cold front approaches the waters. The cold front will reach those waters Thu, then begin weakening as it reaches the northern Gulf of California and Punta Eugenia Thu night. Very large W to NW swell will follow the front Thu night through Fri night, with seas in the 16-21 ft range off Baja California Norte, and the 12-17 ft range off Baja California Sur. The swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero Fri night into Sat. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin late tonight and continue into early Sat, with strong to near gale force N winds expected. A brief period of minimal gale winds, especially in gusts, is likely Thu evening. Seas may build up to 10-11 ft late Thu into early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 88W. Seas in these waters are 5-6 ft. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Sun, with seas up to 7 ft Thu through Sat. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning over the NW waters. Fresh or stronger winds are occurring north of 23N and west of 121W in association with the system discussed above in the special features section. Seas are 9 to 28 ft in these waters, highest NW. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 7-9 ft are prevalent from the ITCZ to 17N and west of 110W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, swell from the gale event described above will spread large seas in NW to N swell across the basin tonight through Sat, with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 08N Fri night into Sat. Seas up to 10 ft from this swell will reach the Equator over the weekend. Looking ahead, another storm system will pass well north of the area over the weekend, producing strong to near-gale force winds N of 28N and sending renewed NW swell into the northern waters by Sun. $$ Hagen