000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jan 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 964 mb hurricane force low pressure centered near 38N140W will continue to move northeastward, dragging a strong cold front that extends southward and southwestward from this low to 30N140W to 27N140W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that gale-force winds are found north of 27N and west of 133W. Seas in these waters are 15-20 ft. The cold front will move southeastward across the northern waters Wed and Thu, dissipating late Fri. Gale force winds are forecast on both sides of the front through Wed evening, mainly north of 27N between 125W and 140W. The front will also usher in very large NW swell across the northern waters, with seas peaking near 30 ft Wed into early Thu along 30N. Seas of 20 ft or greater will reach as far south as 25N Wed night through Thu evening, and as far east as 119W Thu night. Winds will diminish across the area Thu night as high pressure moves in behind the front. However, large NW to N swell will continue to progress southeastward across the forecast waters through Sat, bringing 13 ft seas off Cabo San Lucas and 12 ft seas as far south as 08N120W. High pressure will build behind the cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico resulting in the tightening of the pressure gradient across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Minimal gale force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Tehuantepec region on Thu night. Afterwards, mainly strong winds will persist through early Sat. Seas will build to 10 ft on Thu night into Fri. Conditions will improve late Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 08N90W to 07N100W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N100W to a 1012 mb low pres near 09N109W to 08N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N and east of 85W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The offshore waters of Mexico are under a weak pressure gradient that is anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure system located just west of the Baja California peninsula. This pattern supports light to gentle winds and seas of 1-2 ft in the northern and central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present in the southern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate SW winds and seas of 7-10 ft prevail in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Light to locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found in the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are evident in the offshore waters of SW Mexico. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, southerly winds off Baja California Norte will increase to fresh to strong late Wed as a cold front approaches the waters. The cold front will reach those waters Thu, then begin weakening as it reaches the northern Gulf of California and Punta Eugenia Thu night. Very large W to NW swell will follow the front Thu night through Fri night, with seas in the 16-21 ft range off Baja California Norte, and the 12-17 ft range off Baja California Sur. The swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero Fri night into Sat. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast for late Wed into early Sat, with strong to near gale force N winds expected. A brief period of minimal gale winds, especially in gusts, is expected Thu evening. Seas may build up to 10 ft late Thu into early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass show that fresh to occasionally strong easterly trade winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo, extending westward to 88W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-3 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, winds will increase to strong speeds in the Papagayo region in the next few hours and persist through Sun. Seas will build to 8 ft on Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama Wed into the weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning over the NW waters. Outside of the influence of the strong cold front moving across our northwest waters, a 1022 mb high pressure system near 26N117W prevail weakly across the remainder of the basin. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show that fresh to near gale-force winds are occurring from 22N to 27N and between 123W to 133W. Seas are 8-15 ft in these waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 6-8 ft are prevalent from the ITCZ to 22N and west of 110W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, swell from the gale event described above will spread large seas in NW to N swell across the basin Wed night through Sat, with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 08N Fri night into Sat. Seas up to 10 ft from this swell will reach the Equator over the weekend. Looking ahead, another storm system will pass well north of the area over the weekend, producing strong to near-gale force winds N of 28N and sending renewed NW swell into the northern waters by Sun. $$ DELGADO