000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jan 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 979 mb hurricane force low pressure centered near 37N147W will rapidly deepen to 956 mb in 18 hours near 39N138W. A strong cold front extends southward and southwestward from this low. The cold front will enter the area, crossing 30N140W this evening, reach from 30N132W to 23.5N140W early Wed, and from 30N121W to 22N130W to 20N140W early Thu. Gale force winds are forecast on both sides of the front this evening through Wed evening, mainly north of 27N between 125W and 140W. The front will also usher in very large NW swell across the northern waters, with seas peaking near 28 to 30 ft Wed into early Thu along 30N. Seas of 20 ft or greater will reach as far south as 25N Wed night through Thu evening, and as far east as 119W Thu night. Winds will diminish across the area Thu night as high pressure moves in behind the front. However, large NW to N swell will continue to progress southeastward across the forecast waters through Sat, bringing 13 ft seas off Cabo San Lucas and 12 ft seas as far south as 08N120W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 09N90W to 09N98W. The ITCZ extends from 08N109W to 08N128W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 77.5W and 85W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high pressure associated with the subtropical ridge is centered near 25N118W. The ridge extends weakly eastward into the Mexican offshore waters. This pattern allows for light to gentle winds in the Gulf of California, occasionally to moderate speeds in the northern portion of the Gulf. Seas in the Gulf are 1-3 ft. Light to locally moderate northerly winds prevail in the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas are 7-10 ft off Baja California Norte in NW swell and 6-8 ft off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere in the offshore waters of Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent, except for moderate NNW winds noted near Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail over the waters off Baja California through tonight, leading to gentle to moderate winds. S winds off Baja California Norte will increase to fresh to strong late Wed as a cold front approaches the waters. The cold front will reach those waters Thu, then begin weakening as it reaches the northern Gulf of California and Punta Eugenia Thu night. Very large W to NW swell will follow the front Thu night through Fri night, with seas in the 17-22 ft range off Baja California Norte, and the 13-18 ft range off Baja California Sur. The swell will reach the waters off Cabo Corrientes and Guerrero Fri night into Sat. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast for late Wed into early Sat, with strong to near gale force N winds expected. A brief period of minimal gale winds is possible Thu evening. Seas may build up to 10 ft late Thu into early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect the waters offshore Panama and Colombia. Recent ASCAT wind data show moderate to fresh NE to E winds offshore the Papagayo region. Seas in these waters are 4-5 ft, confirmed by a recent satellite altimeter pass. Light to gentle southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas in the waters described are 3-6 ft, with the highest seas occurring SW of the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the Papagayo region will increase to strong speeds on Wed and continue into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama Wed into the weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next several days with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the Gale Warning over the NW waters. A 1022 mb high pressure associated with the subtropical ridge is centered near 25N118W. A 979 mb hurricane force low pressure is centered near 37N147W, with a cold front extending from 33N145W to 30N147W to 27N150W. Strong SW winds are occurring over the area north of 26N and west of 130W. Expect gales to move into the TAFB forecast waters, SE of 30N140W, within the next 6 hours by 04/0000 UTC. Seas are currently 8 to 13 ft NW of a line from 14N140W to 30N118W in NW swell, highest NW. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found between the ITCZ and 17N and west of 120W. Seas in the area described are 6-8 ft. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds south of the ITCZ and west of 130W, where seas are likely 6-8 ft. For the forecast, swell from the upcoming gale event described above will spread large seas in NW to N swell across the basin Wed night through Sat, with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 08N. Seas up to 10 ft from this swell will reach the Equator over the weekend. Looking ahead, another storm system will pass well north of the area over the weekend, sending renewed NW swell into the northern waters by Sun. $$ Hagen