000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030905
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong low pressure will approach from the west on Tue, then 
pass N of the area during the middle of the week. Associated cold
front will shift into the NW waters late Tue or early Wed. Strong
to gale force winds are forecast on either side of the front 
late Tue into Thu. The front will also usher in a large set of 
NW swell into the NW waters, with seas peaking near 28 ft Wed 
into early Thu. Conditions will improve late Thu.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast at website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N84W
to 08N100W. The ITCZ continues from 08N100W to a 1012 mb low 
pres near 08N105W to 07N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted on satellite imagery from 04N to 12N and 
between 93W and 112W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge persists near 24N125W and extends weakly
eastward into the Mexican offshore waters. This pattern allows
for light to gentle winds in the Gulf of California, occasionally
to moderate speeds in the northern portion of the basin. Seas in
the Gulf are 1-3 ft. Light to locally moderate northerly winds
prevail in the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these
waters are 6-9 ft, recently confirmed by an altimeter satellite
pass. Elsewhere in the offshore waters of Mexico, including the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to locally moderate winds and slight 
to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Seas off Baja 
California will subside into Tue, before building again Wed into
Thu as a new set of NW swell propagates into the area. The next 
gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible 
late Wed into Sat. Seas may build up to 10 ft late Thu into 
early Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect the
offshore waters of Panama. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicate that the storm activity is inducing gusty winds. Fairly
tranquil weather conditions prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds are currently affecting the waters in the 
Papagayo region, extending westward to 90W. Seas in these waters 
are 4-5 ft. 

Light to gentle southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon 
trough. Seas in the waters described are 3-6 ft, with the 
highest seas occurring SW of the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the Papagayo region 
will increase to strong speeds on Wed and continue through Sun.
Seas will approach 8 ft on Fri. Moderate to locally fresh 
northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama Wed through
the weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue
elsewhere for the next several days with slight to moderate 
seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see above for more on an upcoming gale warning over the NW
waters.

The subtropical ridge remains located near 24N125W and dominates
the tropical eastern Pacific, maintaining fairly tranquil 
weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the high 
pressure system and a weak cold front north of our area result in
moderate to fresh SW winds north of 27N, which was recently 
confirmed by a scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these 
waters are 8-12 ft. Latest altimeter data indicate seas up to 12 
ft near 30N132W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are 
found between the ITCZ and 20N and west of 110W. Seas in the area
described are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are 
noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, along with seas of 
5-7 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, aside from the upcoming gale warning, little
change in the current conditions are expected the next couple of
days. 

$$
DELGADO