102 
AXPZ20 KNHC 021432
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Deep low pressure will approach from the west on Tue, then pass 
N of the area during the middle of the week. Associated cold 
front will shift into the NW waters late Tue/early Wed. Gale 
force winds are forecast on either side of the front late Tue 
into Wed. The front will also usher in a large set of NW swell 
into the NW waters, with seas peaking near 25 ft Wed into Thu.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast at website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N98W to 09N115W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N115W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 102W and 108W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the northern Gulf of
California, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere. Fresh
winds are off Baja California Norte, with moderate winds off Baja
California Sur. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across
the discussion waters. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range off Baja
California Norte and 6-8 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas of 4-6
ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf
of California, seas of 4-6 ft are over the northern Gulf, with
seas of 2-3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds in the northern 
Gulf of California and offshore waters of Baja California Norte 
will diminish to moderate speeds today. Seas off Baja California 
will subside into Tue, before building again on Wed as a new set 
of NW swell propagates into the area. The next gale force gap 
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible later this 
week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are occurring in the Gulf
of Papagayo, extending westward to 88W. Seas in these waters are
5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are found south of 
the monsoon trough. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are 4-6
ft.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong easterly winds over the 
Papagayo region will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds today.
Winds will increase to strong speeds midweek. Gentle to 
occasionally moderate winds will continue elsewhere for the next 
several days with slight to moderate seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of 20N and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh trade winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft, 
north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Long- period NW swell 
is producing seas in the 7-11 ft range north of 25N. Elsewhere 
north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate 
easterly winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft exist. Gentle to moderate 
southerly winds with seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail south of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, aside from the upcoming gale warning, little
change in the current conditions are expected the next couple of
days. 

$$
AL