000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011025
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front just west
of Baja California have increased westerly winds toward the 
peninsula, resulting in near-gale to gale force SW to W gap 
winds over the northern Gulf of California through mid morning. 
Please read the latest Pacific Ocean High Sea Forecast at 
website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Offshore 
Waters Forecasts at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N100W to 09N116W to 
06N128W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present from 04N
to 08N between 77W and 104W, and from 06N to 08N between 120W and 
128W. An ITCZ extends from 06N128W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
showers are noted from 07N to 11N between 128W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front extending from 31N119W to 27N125W to 25N133W is
causing moderate to fresh westerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas off 
Baja California Norte. A weakening surface ridge near 23N128W is 
sustaining gentle to locally moderate northerly winds with 4 to 6
ft seas across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur and 
central Mexico. Strong to locally gale SW to W winds and seas of
5 to 8 ft are found at the northern Gulf of California, while 
light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of 
the Gulf. Mainly gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen 
offshore from southern Mexico.

For the forecast, westerly gap winds at the northern Gulf of 
California will peak at near-gale to gale force until mid 
morning. Afterward, these winds will persist at fresh to strong 
with locally near-gales through this evening, before subsiding 
to moderate on Mon. Fresh to locally near-gale northerly winds 
are expected across the waters west of Baja California from later
this morning through early Mon morning, large NW swell will 
persist through Mon afternoon. Lastly, gale-force gap winds are 
possible at the Gulf of Tehuantepec after midweek.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are noted over the 
Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of 
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds exist 
south of the monsoon trough. Seas across all the offshore waters 
range from 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 5 ft near the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds over the 
Papagayo region will decrease to fresh this afternoon through Mon
morning. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will continue 
elsewhere for the next several days with slight to moderate seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between surface ridge near 23N128W and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft, north of the ITCZ 
to 20N and west of 125W. A cold front extending from 31N119W to
27N125W to 25N133W is creating fresh to locally strong winds 
north of 27N between 122W and 128W. Long-period NW swell 
associated with the front is causing 9 to 11 ft seas north of 25N
and west of 121W. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, 
gentle to locally moderate eastly winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft 
exist. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with seas of 5 to 6 ft 
prevail south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the cold front will move over Baja California 
Norte today. The front will be from 31N114W across central Baja
California and 26N116W to 23N123W late tonight, then start to 
dissipate from Baja California Sur near Cabo San Lazaro out to 
22N121W by Mon morning. Strong to locally near-gale NW winds and
10 to 13 ft NW swell will accompany the front. High pressure 
building in the wake of the front will support a large area of 
fresh trade winds over the tropical Pacific waters along the ITCZ
west of 135W by early Mon morning, along with combined seas 7 to
8 ft with a component of NW swell. 

$$

Forecaster Chan