000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050937
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
11N85W to 11N100W to 08N115W. The ITCZ extends from 08N115W to 
09N126W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 15N E of 95W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 120W and 
137W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NW winds continue along the Gulf of California 
with seas to 7 ft. High pressure ridging extends across the 
Baja California offshore waters where recent scatterometer data
continue to show moderate to locally fresh NW winds and NW swell
of 5-8 ft prevail. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are also 
noted across the Jalisco and Michoacan offshore waters with seas
to 6 ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the
remainder Mexican offshore waters where altimeter data show seas
to 5 ft.

For the forecast, northerly winds associated with a broad 
surface ridge will continue to support fresh to strong winds 
along the Gulf of California through this morning. Winds will 
gradually diminish to gentle speeds through tonight along the 
Gulf of California. Fresh NW winds and swell offshore Baja 
California will diminish during the afternoon hours. An 
additional set of NW swell with brief fresh winds will approach 
the Baja California Norte offshore waters this evening and 
subside Sun night. Otherwise, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind 
event is forecast to begin Mon evening and continue through Wed 
night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to impact
areas from offshore Costa Rica NW to offshore Guatemala. Expect 
gusty winds with rough seas near the thunderstorms. Moderate to 
fresh, with occasional strong, S-SW winds are south of the 
monsoon trough with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds are 
north of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, scattered showers and tstms will persist
through early next week mainly across the offshore waters S of 
the monsoon trough. Fresh SW winds S of the monsoon trough and
across the Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica offshores will
diminish by Sun evening. Light to gentle variable winds will 
persist elsewhere with seas to 5 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough and W of 110W. Fresh to locally strong NE-E trades 
prevail from 12N to 23N and west of 120W. Seas in this area 
remain in the 8-11 ft range in mixed NE wind waves and N swell. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere N of 25N and W 
of 120W with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to
8 ft are south of the ITCZ west of 120W. Moderate to fresh SW winds
are south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 08N and E of 110W. 

For the forecast, N swell will continue to propagate across the 
northern waters into the weekend, reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge W of Baja California and 
the monsoon/ITCZ will continue to support fresh to locally strong
trades in the west-central waters through Sun. Seas will build 
up to near 12 ft as the wind waves combine with the NW swell. The 
surge of fresh NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft N of 25N will exit
the area Sun morning. A weak cold front is forecast to drop south
of 30N by late Mon, ushering in large N swell and fresh to
locally strong winds by Tue. Winds and seas associated with this
front will subside by Wed night.

$$
Ramos