000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051517 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Nov 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 9.4N 92.4W at 05/1500 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Maximum seas are near 10 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 90W and 96W. The system is forecast to continue on a westward track the next several days. The current forecast has the system intensifying to a tropical storm by Sun. Please refer to the latest forecast advisory on TD 18-E at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building southward from the Gulf of Mexico toward southeastern Mexico and a tropical cyclone south of Guatemala is supporting gale force gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This gale force gap wind event is expected to last into next week, with peak winds of 35-40 kt and seas forecast to reach a maximum of around 12 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become more concentrated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Additional development of this system is possible over the next few days and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by early next week. There is a medium probability of tropical cyclogenesis. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N89W. It resumes from 09N95W to 12N108W to 09N124W. The ITCZ continues from 09N124W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 101W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event as well as information on T.D. 18-E. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 31N133W with an associated ridge extending southeastward to the W of Baja California, to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over NW Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds west of the Baja California peninsula, as well as inside the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft ft range west of Baja California, and 5-7 ft over the remainder of open waters off Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. ale conditions will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon. Moderate to fresh northwest winds offshore of Baja California will continue through Fri, then diminish to gentle to moderate into the weekend. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through the period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Please see the Special Features section above for more on T.D. 18-E. Outside of winds and seas associated with the depression, light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the discussion waters. The depression is forecast to reach tropical storm intensity Sun, when it will move west of the offshore waters off Central America. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo each night starting Sat night. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features section above for more on T.D. 18-E and the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. High pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 31N133W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to near 20N, with gentle to moderate winds north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range in mixed NW and S swell over the waters north of 10N and west 115W. Seas in the 6-7 ft range prevail elsewhere. The northwest swell will spread southeastward maintaining seas 8 ft or greater over much of the waters north of 08N and west of 112W through tonight before it gradually decays through the weekend. A cold front will brush the far northwest waters on Sun preceded by fresh southwest to west winds and seas to near 9 ft. $$ AL