000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0915 UTC Sun Jun 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Locally Heavy Rainfall Over Southeastern Mexico... Locally heavy rainfall will continue over portions of southeastern Mexico and the adjacent coastal waters during the next few days as the region remains under the influence of a broad, low-level cyclonic circulation known as the Central American Gyre. Deep moisture from the eastern Pacific will interact with a low pressure system over the southern Bay of Campeche to maintain the threat of heavy rainfall for the next several days. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America and southern Mexico to 1008 mb low pressure near 15N95W, then continues to 10N102W to 09N110W. The ITCZ extends from 09N110W to 10N120W to 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 07N between 78W and 81W, from 08N to 11N between 85W and 87W, and from 15N to 17N between 96W and 101W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Scatterometer data from 0430Z-0500Z shows fresh SW gap winds occurring over the northern Gulf of California between higher pressures west of Baja California and a low pressure trough over the Gulf. These SW gap winds are expected to pulse to fresh speeds again tonight before diminishing by Mon as the local pressure gradient relaxes. Moderate NW breezes prevail south of Punta Eugenia with gentle winds elsewhere off the Baja California coast per recent scatterometer data. Fresh NW winds will pulse across the waters south of Punta Eugenia and off Los Cabos for the next several days as a high pressure ridge remains positioned west of the offshore waters. Farther south, 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed at 15N95W along the monsoon trough near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This low will likely remain stationary today before dissipating. Another weak low is expected to form tonight near 13N98.5W and drift W, then remain nearly stationary roughly along 100W through Tue night. No significant winds or seas are expected with either feature. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle W to SW winds prevail over the Central American offshore waters south of the monsoon trough. Earlier altimeter passes showed 4-6 ft seas off El Salvador and Nicaragua, while seas were running 2-4 ft south of the Gulf of Panama and off the coast of Colombia. Farther south, seas have built to 8 ft in SW swell south of the Galapagos Islands per available altimeter data. This swell will maintain 8-9 ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue. Seas will briefly subside Tue night and Wed before another set of SW swell approaches the region by late week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure located NW of the area near 34N142.5W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A 06Z scatterometer pass shows fresh NE trade winds south of the ridge from 20N to 24N west of 137W, with a broad region of moderate trades between the ridge and the ITCZ. Altimeter data still shows 8 ft seas roughly along 140W within the trade winds. The ridge will gradually weaken early this week, resulting in diminishing trade winds and subsiding seas. By late week, high pressure will strengthen NW of the area, and the resulting pressure gradient may produce fresh N to NE winds over the far northern waters with seas building to 8-9 ft. Seas remain 8 ft or greater over the waters south of the Equator and west of 100W. A 04Z altimeter pass indicated 9 ft seas near 02S116W with 8 ft seas extending north of the Equator to around 03N. As the SW swell gradually decays early this week, seas will subside below 8 ft from west to east. Another SW swell event is expected by mid to late week, with wave heights once again reaching 8 ft south of the Equator. $$ Reinhart