000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300933 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Dec 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 04N73W TO 03.5N78W TO 04N92W. The ITCZ continues from 04N92W TO 05N110W TO 04N123W TO BEYOND 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 112W and 127W, from 10N to 13.5N between 107W and 120W, and from 05N to 08.5N W of 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Subsiding northerly swell is propagating across the offshore waters of Baja California, with seas in the 5-8 ft range. Seas will subside to 5-7 ft by Sun afternoon, before another pulse of northerly swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte Sun night, building seas to near 10 ft Mon. Seas will then subside through midweek. Gulf of California: High pressure over the Great Basin of United States is supporting fresh to strong NW winds across the entire length of the gulf, with seas 6-8 ft across most of the basin. The strong winds and associated seas will diminish Sun as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will once again strengthen over the Gulf of California early Tue through Thu. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Overnight drainage flow will bring a fresh to strong pulse of northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through early morning. A strong gap wind event is expected late next week. Winds will strengthen across the gulf Tue night, and further increase to gale force Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu. Winds will peak at around 30 kt during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of nocturnal drainage flow. Moderate to fresh N winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds will prevail N of 08N, while gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1033 mb centered N of the area near 36N134W extends a ridge across the forecast waters to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands to near 14N106W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 23N and W of 116W. The area of high pressure will remain in place N of the area helping to maintain this broad area of fresh to strong trades. Long period NW swell is merging with this tradewind swell to produce seas of 8 to 13 ft over much of the area north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Global models continue to indicate a cold-core upper low will dig into the base of a mid/upper level trough early next week, supporting the development of a sharp surface trough or even weak low pressure along the ITCZ near 120W by mid week. This will likely enhance the trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, with near gale conditions possible on the northern end of the surface trough. $$ Stripling