000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1448 UTC Thu Dec 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure over Colombia near 07N75W to 03N80W to 05N87W to 05N96W. The ITCZ continues from 05N96W to 07N105W to 06N120W to beyond 06N140W. Cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection from 05.5N to 08N between 103.5W and 106.5W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of ITCZ axis between 109W and 113W...and from 06N to 11N between 116W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Winds are forecast to increase to between 20 and 25 kt across the far N part of the Gulf today and tonight with seas building to between 5 and 7 ft as a frontal trough crosses the region. Then, strong high pressure building over the Great Basin will bring fresh to strong northerly winds across the northern Gulf Fri night through Sun, and across the central Gulf Sat night and Sun. Strong NE gap winds could spill out over the offshore forecast waters during this time frame. In addition, the fresh to strong northerly winds are also expected to briefly affect the southern Gulf of California, and the waters between Los Cabos and Las Tres Marias Islands on Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds and seas have diminished across the Tehuantepec region as high pressure slides E from the Gulf of Mexico. Nocturnal drainage flow could bring strong northerly winds to the waters N of 15N between 94.5W and 95.5W by Sun night. Marine guidance suggests another strong Tehunatepec gap wind event next week. Latest satellite-derived wind data indicated moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California Peninsula. Seas in this area are currently running between 8 and 10 ft in NW swell. The strong NW winds will pulse over these waters through Fri. seas of 8 ft are noted near the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will continue to affect the offshore waters W of Baja California through at least the end of this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected across the area through Mon. The winds will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours, during the times of nocturnal drainage flow. Seas are forecast to build to between 8 and 10 ft while winds peak near gale force on Sat. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong winds N of 05N between 79.5W and 81W will diminish to mainly moderate winds this afternoon. Moderate to fresh N winds are expected through Mon, with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. Elsewhere: Moderate NE winds will prevail elsewhere N of 08N. Moderate S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 08N through Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1033 mb high pressure system centered near 39N135W extends a ridge SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong NE winds, particularly from 09N to 25N W of 120W. Seas in this area range between 8 and 11 ft. These marine conditions are forecast to persist through the end of this week. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters mainly W of 110W and support seas of 8 to 11 ft. The swell will slowly decay and allow seas E of 110W to subside below 8 ft by tonight. Another set of long period NW swell has reached the NW corner of the forecast area, and will continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters over the next several days. $$ GR