000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270359 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 222 UTC Thu Dec 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1006 mb low pressure over Colombia near 07N75W to 02N81W. The ITCZ continues from 02N81W to 05N110W to 05N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm N of ITCZ axis between 105W and 111W...and within 180 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 130W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Winds are forecast to increase to between 20 and 25 kt across the northern part of the Gulf Thu night through Sun with seas building to between 5 and 7 ft as a frontal trough crosses the region Thu night into Fri. W Gap winds will peak near gale force Thu night between 30N and 31N, then briefly subside to between fresh and strong. Then, strong high pressure building over the Great Basin will set up a prolonged drainage NW wind event along the entire length of the Gulf of California Fri night through Sun night. Strong NE gap winds could spill out over the offshore forecast waters during this time frame. In addition, the fresh to strong northerly winds are also expected to affect the waters between Los Cabos and Las Tres Marias Islands Sat night and Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds and seas have subsided as high pressure slides E from the Gulf of Mexico. Nocturnal drainage could bring strong winds to the waters N of 15N Sun night. A ridge covering the offshore forecast waters combined with lower pressure over the SW CONUS and N Mexico is generating an area of fresh to locally strong NW to N winds N of Punta Eugenia. Seas in this area are running between 9 and 11 ft in NW swell. The strong NW winds will pulse over these waters through Fri. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell are reaching the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Sur, while seas of 8 ft are noted near the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 8-11 ft will continue to affect the offshore waters W of Baja California through at least Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected across the area through Mon. The winds will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours, during the times of nocturnal drainage flow. Seas are forecast to build to 8 or 9 ft during the strongest winds. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected through Mon with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. Elsewhere: Gentle to moderate NE winds will continue to the north of 08N, while light to gentle south winds are expected S of 08N, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range throughout. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1032 mb high pressure centered near 35N137W ridges SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong NE winds, particularly from 10N to 21N W of 118W. Seas in this area range between 8 and 11 ft. These marine conditions are forecast to persist through the end of this week. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters mainly W of 110W and support seas of 8 to 11 ft. The swell will slowly decay and allow seas E if 115W to subside below 8 ft by Tue night. $$ CAM