000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1447 UTC Wed Dec 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 02N82W. the ITCZ continues from 02N82W to 05N110W to 06N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm N of ITCZ axis between 103W and 107W...from 06N to 10N between 110W and 118W, and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 132W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt across the northern part of the Gulf Thu night through Sun with seas building to 6-8 ft as an area of low pressure crosses the region. Then, strong high pressure building over the Great Basin will set up a prolonged drainage NW wind event along the entire length of the Gulf of California Fri night through Mon. Strong NE gap winds could spill out over the offshore forecast waters during this time frame. In addition, the fresh to strong northerly winds are also expected to affect the waters between Los Cabos and Las Tres Marias Islands. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds continue to diminish in the Tehuantepec region as high pres over the Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward. The the N to NE winds will diminish to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon and become light and variable on Thu. The residual NE swell generated by the recent strong to gale force N to NE winds will propagate to the SW and W while losing energy. This area will merge with NE to E swell downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo and all of this will continue to subside to less than 8 ft by late tonight. High pressure of 1032 mb located near 34N137W combined with lower pressure over the SW CONUS and norther Mexico is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NW to N winds N of 26N E OF 125W. Seas in this area are running between 12 and 18 ft in NW swell. The strong NW winds will retreat N of 30N by around midday today, however, they are expected to pulse back across these waters Thu evening through Fri. Wave heights produced by the aforementioned winds will subside to between 8 and 11 ft tonight, then rebuild Thu night and Fri. This batch of NW long-period swell is expected to produce wave heights in the range of 8 to 10 ft over the offshore waters of southern Baja California today. The swell will slowly subside later this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE winds will reach as far SW as 10N90W this morning. Areal coverage and strength of the winds will diminish this evening through Sat, then winds will increase once again to between strong and near gale force Sat night and Sun. Gulf of Panama: Strong N to NE winds will diminish to fresh tonight then to moderate Fri through Sat. Fresh winds will return Sat night through Sun night. Elsewhere: Gentle to moderate NE winds will continue to the north of 08N, while light to gentle south winds are expected S of 08N, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range throughout. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As previously mentioned, a 1032 mb high pressure located near 34N137W extends a ridge SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong NE winds, particularly from 07N to 25N W of 130W, and from 07N to 22N between 120W and 130W. Seas within this area are ranging in the 8-11 ft range. These marine conditions are forecast to persist over the next 48 hours. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters W of 110W building seas to 8-11 ft. $$ GR