000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 631 UTC Wed Dec 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Minimal gale force W winds have diminished to below gale force as a weakening frontal trough sweeps SE toward the southern Gulf. However, a repeat performance appears to be on store for the northern Gulf as a sharp mid to upper-level trough digging over the Desert SW will induce low pressure to the NE of the Gulf of california. The area of low pressure will drive strong NW winds along the coast of Baja California Norte and cause near gale force to gale force winds to funnel through the low terrain of Baja between 30N and 31N Thu night and Fri morning. Strong high pressure building over the Great Basin will set up a prolonged drainage NW wind event along the entire length of the Gulf of California Fri night through Mon. Strong NE gap winds could spill out over the Pacific from the Gulf during this time frame. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional marine specific information. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N74W to 04N81W to 05N86W to 04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 05N107W to 06N124W to 06N138W. A surface trough extending from 04N139W to 12N139W interrupts the ITCZ. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N to 11N between 109W and 124W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also present from 05N to 10N W of 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: See special features paragraph above for the next short-lived gale wind event expected on Thu night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Presently, N to NE 20 to 30 kt winds and seas to 9 ft are found within 30 nm either side of a line from 16N95W to 15N95W. As high pres over the Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward, the N to NE winds will diminish to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon and become light and variable on Thu. The residual NE swell generated by the recent strong to gale force N to NE winds will propagate to the SW and W while losing energy. This area will merge with NE to E swell downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo and all of this will continue to disperse but eventually combine with an extensive area of NW swell that covers just about the entire area west of about 113W north of 06N by Thu night. A ridge extends from near 32N132W to just SE of the Revillagigedo Islands near 18N109W. Gulf of California and Baja Pacific Waters: Strong NW winds E of 125W have spread S over the Baja California Norte coastal waters to 27.5N. Seas in this area are running between 12 and 17 ft in NW swell. The strong NW winds will retreat N of 30N by around midday today, however, they are expected to pulse back across these waters Thu evening through Fri. Wave heights produced by the aforementioned winds will subside to between 8 and 11 ft Wed night, then rebuild Thu night and Fri. This batch of NW long- period swell is expected to produce wave heights in the range of 8 to 10 ft over the offshore waters of southern Baja California today. The swell will slowly disperse later this week as seas lower to around 8 ft, except that seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected to linger in the waters west of Baja California Norte. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE winds will reach as far SW as 10N90W this morning. Areal coverage and strength of the winds will diminish this evening through Sat, then winds will increase once again to between strong and near gale force Sat night and Sun. Gulf of Panama: Strong N to NE winds will diminish to fresh tonight then to moderate Fri through Sat. Fresh winds will return Sat night through Sun night. Elsewhere: Gentle to moderate NE winds will continue to the north of 08N, while light to gentle south winds are expected S of 08N, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range throughout. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge will stretch from a 1031 mb high pressure that is centered north of the area near 34N138W to near 18N108W. The ridge will be replaced by a strong area of high pressure that builds S behind the next cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds, with resultant seas of 9 to 11 ft, will continue across the tropical waters west of 125W between the ridge and the ITCZ this week. Strong to near gale force NW winds have recently surged S to near 27.5N and east of 125W along with wave heights of 12 to 17 ft in NW swell. These winds will briefly diminish this evening and increase again Thu night and Fri. Wave heights will drop to between 9 and 11 ft to the E of about 124W tonight then increase to between 11 ft and 13 ft Thu night and Fri. Long period NW swell generated by the persistent strong to near gale force NW winds in this area will continue propagating SE through the waters north of 09N and west of about 114W through the remainder of this week, with corresponding wave heights between 8 and 11 ft. A surface trough analyzed from near 04N139W to 12N139W is situated to the east of a large upper-level trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 05N to 10N W of 135W. Expect the surface trough to move little during the next 24 hours, then dissipate by tonight. $$ CAM