000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260354 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 UTC Wed Dec 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Minimal gale force W winds are funneling over the northern Gulf from 30N to 31N. Seas will peak in this area around 8 ft. These winds will diminish to below gale force late tonight as a weakening frontal trough sweeps SE toward the southern Gulf. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional marine specific information. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N74W to 04N81W to 05N86W to 04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 05N105W to 05N126W to 06N137W. A surface trough extending from 04N139W to 12N138W interrupts the ITCZ. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 118W and 122W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within an are bounded by 08N108W to 10N108W to 11N123W to 06N127W to 04N120W to 08N108W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also present from 05N to 09N W of 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: See special features paragraph above for the currently ongoing short-lived gale wind event. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The recent gale force wind event ended this morning as the pressure gradient over SE Mexico has slackened. Presently, N to NE 20 to 30 kt winds and seas to 9 ft are found within 30 nm either side of a line from 16N95W to 15N95W. As the gradient weakens further, the N to NE winds will diminish to 10 to 15 kt on Wed afternoon and become light and variable on Thu. The residual NE swell from the recent gale force north to northeast winds and now strong to near gale force winds will propagate to the SW and W while losing energy. This area will merge with NE to E swell downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo and eventually combine with an extensive area of NW swell that covers just about the entire area west of about 110W north of 06N by Thu night. A ridge extends from near 32N132W to just SE of the Revillagigedo Islands near 18N109W. Gulf of California and Baja Pacific Waters: Strong to near gale force NW winds E of 124W have spread S over the Baja California Norte coastal waters to 27N. Seas in this area are running between 11 and 16 ft in NW swell. The strong NW winds will diminish some in both speed and coverage through Wed night, however, they are expected to pulse back across these waters Thu through Fri. Wave heights produced by the aforementioned winds will subside to the range of 8 to 11 ft Wed night and build slightly on Thu. This batch of NW long- period swell is expected to produce wave heights in the range of 8 to 10 ft over the offshore waters of southern Baja California by Wed. The swell will slowly disperse later on in the week, with seas lowering to around 8 ft, except for seas of 8 to 10 ft expected to linger in the waters west of Baja California Norte. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE winds will reach as far SW as 09N90W through early on Wed, then expand northward late Wed night and Thu, and diminish in coverage Thu afternoon, briefly expand in coverage again late Thu night before diminishing again on Fri. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh north to NE winds will increase to strong winds beginning tonight and into Wed, then diminish to mainly fresh winds Wed through Thu night and to mainly moderate winds Fri. Elsewhere: Gentle to moderate NE winds will continue to the north of 08N, while light to gentle south winds are expected S of 08N, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range throughout. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge will stretch from a 1030 mb high pressure that is centered north of the area near 34N136W to near 18N109W. The ridge will be replaced by a strong area of high pressure that builds S behind the next cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds, with resultant seas of 9 to 11 ft, will continue across the tropical waters west of 125W between the ridge and the ITCZ this week. Strong to near gale force NW winds have recently surged S to near 27N and east of 124W along with wave heights of 11 to 16 ft in NW swell. These winds will briefly diminish late on Wed and increase again on Thu. Wave heights will drop to between 9 and 12 ft to the E of about 124W late Wed and slightly on Thu. The main issue impacting the area will be that the long period NW swell generated by the the strong to near gale force NW winds that will continue to propagate SE through the waters north of 09N and west of about 114W through the remainder of this week, with corresponding wave heights between 8 and 11 ft. A surface trough analyzed from near 04N139W to 12N138W is situated to the east of a large upper-level trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 05N to 09N W of 138W. Expect the surface trough to move little during the next 24 hours, then dissipate by late on Wed. $$ CAM