000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252214 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Dec 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Minimal gale force west winds have materialize over the northern Gulf from 30N to 31N, with seas to around 8 ft. This winds will diminish to below gale late tonight as a frontal trough sweeps across the entire length of the Gulf. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional marine specific information. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N75W to a 10056 mb low over far western Colombia at 06N76W and continues southwestward off the coast of Colombia to 04N80W to 05N86W and to 05N93W, where latest scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ then begins and continues to 06N105W to 06N113W to 06N122W to 07N131W and resumes at 06N137W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 118W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 111W and 118W, and also north of the ITCZ within 30 nm of 07N97W. ..DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: See special features paragraph above for ongoing short-lived gale wind event. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The recent gale force wind event ended this morning as the pressure gradient over southeastern Mexico has slackened. Presently, north to northeast 25 to 30 kt winds and seas to 11 ft are within 30 nm either side of a line from 16N95W to 15N95W. Elsewehre over the Gulf region, north to northeast winds of 20 to 25 kt are within 60 nm either side of a line from 16N95W to 15N95W to 14.5N95W, with seas of 8 ft. As the gradient weakens further, the north to northeast winds will diminish to 10 to 15 kt on Wed afternoon and become light and variable on Thu. The residual northeast swell from the recent gale force north to northeast winds and now strong to near gale force winds will propagate to the southwest and to the west while losing energy as it combines with an extensive area of northwest that covers just about the entire area west of about 110W north of 06N. A ridge extends from near 32N136W to southeast of the Revillagigedo Islands near 16N108W. Strong to near gale force northwest winds have recently surged to just south 32N between 116W and 124W along with seas of 10 to 14 in northwest swell. These winds will continue to spread southward to near 27N between 116W and 122W by late tonight while diminishing some in speeds, however, associated seas will remain quite high in the northeast section of the area with waveheights in the range of 11 to 16 ft. This batch of northwest long-period swell is expected to produce waveheights in the range of 8 to 10 ft over the offshore waters of southern Baja California by Wed. Hazardous surf conditions may possible near the coast of Baja California through late Wed. The swell will slowly dissipate later on in the week, with seas lowering to around 8 ft, except for seas of 8 to 10 ft expected to linger in the waters west of Baja California Norte. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force northeast winds will reach as far southwest as 09N90W through early on Wed, then expand northward late Wed night and Thu, and diminish in coverage Thu afternoon, briefly expand in coverage again late Thu night before diminishing again on Fri. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will increase to strong winds beginning tonight and into Wed, then diminish to mainly fresh winds Wed through Thu night and to mainly moderate winds Fri. Elsewhere: Gentle to moderate northeast winds will continue to the north of 08N, while light to gentle south winds are expected S of 08N, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range throughout. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge will stretch from a 1032 mb high pressure that is analyzed north of the area at 36N135W through 32N132W, to 23N122W and to near 18N113W through Wed night, before being replaced by a strong area of high pressure that builds southward over the most of the remainder of the area sections. Fresh to strong northeast winds, with resultant seas of 9 to 10 ft, will continue across the tropical waters west of 125W between the ridge and the ITCZ this week. Strong to near gale force northwest winds have recently surged to just south 32N and east of 124W along with waveheights of 10 to 14 ft in northwest swell. These winds will continue to spread southward to near 27N to the east of 122W by late tonight while diminishing some in speeds. These winds will briefly diminish late on Wed and increase again on Thu. Waveheights will lower to around the 9 to 12 ft range to the east of about 124W late Wed and slightly on Thu. The main issue impacting the area will be that the long- period northwest associated with the strong to near gale force northwest winds will continue to propagate southeastward through the waters north of 09N and west of about 114W through the remainder of this week, with waveheights in the 8 to 11 ft range. A surface trough analyzed along a position from near 13N134W to 08N135W and 06N135W is to the east of a large upper-level trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 08N to 13N between the trough and 125W. Expect for the surface trough to move little through the next 24 hours, then dissipate by late on Wed. $$ Aguirre