000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250349 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 UTC Tue Dec 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds and seas to 12 ft extend SW to 14.5N95.5W. The associated strong winds extend as far S as 13.5N96W. Gale conditions are forecast to end after sunrise on Tue. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less on Wed. The associated NE swell will propagate SW and merge with long period cross-equatorial swell resulting in 7 to 9 ft seas across the tropical waters from roughly 06N to 10N between 93W and 106W. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional information. Gulf of California Gale Warning: Light and variable winds will gradually become SW tonight and increase to a strong W breeze along 30N ahead of a cold front that will move across the northern gulf waters on Tue. Near gale force W winds will develop N of 29N Tue afternoon and rapidly increase to minimal gale force. Seas to 8 ft are forecast to develop along 30N on Tue night. The cold front will weaken as it sweeps SE across the central gulf waters Wed. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional information. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends SW off the Pacific coast of Colombia from 10N75W to 04N81W, then W to 05N93W, then continues W as the ITCZ to 06N111W to 07N124W where it is interrupted by a surface trough extending from 03N128W to 15N128W. The ITCZ resumes from 07N128W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 06N to 08N between 105W and 110W and within 90 nm either side of a line from 05N128W to 11N135W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N to 11N between 131W and 133W. Scattered moderate convection is seen elsewhere from 05N to 12N between 126W and 134W. ..DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...See special features paragraph above. Gulf of California: See special features paragraph above. A ridge is meandering from 32N135W to just SE of the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to locally strong NW winds currently N of 28N will increase to near gale force N of 26.5N on Wed with seas building to 11 to 19 ft. These winds will reinforce existing long-period NW swell with 7 to 9 ft seas reaching the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula on Wed night. Conditions will begin to improve late this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE flow will reach as far SW as 09N91W through Tue morning with pulses of strong NE winds then continuing the remainder of the week. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh N winds forecast this week except that winds will become locally strong Tue night and Wed. Elsewhere: Gentle to moderate NE winds will prevail N of 08N, while light to gentle S winds are expected S of 08N, with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range throughout. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge will continue to extend from near 32N135W to near 18N109W this week. Fresh to locally strong NE trades will continue across the tropical waters W of 125W between the ridge and the ITCZ this week. Seas in this area will run between 8 and 11 ft. Fresh to locally strong NW flow N of 28N E of 125W will increase to near gale force on Tue with seas of 12 to 19 ft. The pressure gradient W of Baja California Norte will relax briefly on Thu, then tighten again Thu night and Fri. In the meantime, a larger area of long period NW swell will continue surrounding these two enhanced areas. All of the long period NW swell will continue propagating SE across the waters N of 09N and W of 115W this week, manifested in the form of 7 to 11 ft seas. The combination of cross equatorial swell and NE swell associated with the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo winds will maintain 7 to 9 ft seas across the waters from 05N to 12N between 91W and 115W until Thu. $$ CAM