000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Dec 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds and seas to 14 ft extend SW to 14N96W. Gale conditions are forecast to end after sunrise on Tue. The associated strong winds extend as far S as 12N97W. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less on Wed. The associated NE swell will propagate SW merging with long- period cross-equatorial swell resulting in 7 to 9 ft seas across the tropical waters from roughly 06N to 10N between 93W and 106W. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional information. Gulf of California: Light northerly winds are forecast to become light and variable this evening, then gradually become southerly tonight while increasing to a strong W breeze along 30N ahead of a cold front that will move across the northern gulf waters on Tue, followed by near gale force northerly winds. Minimal gale force westerly winds, with 7 to 10 ft seas, will develop along 30N on Tue. The cold front will sweep SE across the central gulf waters on Wed, preceded by brief strong westerlies. Refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZNPN03 for additional information. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends SW off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 05N78W to 06N91W where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ develops and continues W-SW to 04N104W, then turns W-NW to 08N130W, then continues W to beyond 07N140W. A surface trough is analyzed just N of the ITCZ from 06N120W to 13N119W with scattered moderate isolated strong convection observed within 120 nm either side of the trough axis. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of lines from 06N78W to 03N81W and from 06.5N91W to 07N100W. Similar convection is observed within 180 nm either side of a line from 08N125W to 09N138W. ..DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...See special features paragraph above. Gulf of California: See special features paragraph above. A ridge is meandering from 23N116W to 15N98W. Fresh to locally strong NW winds currently N of 28N will increase to near gale force N of 26.5N on Wed with 11 to 19 ft seas. This long-period NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula on Wed night. Conditions will begin to improve late this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE flow will reach as far SW as 09N91W through Tue morning with pulses of strong NE winds then continuing the remainder of the week. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds forecast this week except becoming locally strong on Tue night into Wed. Elsewhere: Gentle to moderate winds NE will prevail N of 08N, while light to gentle southerly winds are expected S of 08N, with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range throughout. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge will meander from 32N138W to 23N116W this week. Fresh to locally strong NE trades will continue across the tropical waters SW of the ridge and W of 125W this week, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Fresh to locally strong NW flow N of 28N E of 125W will increase to near gale force on Tue with seas of 12 to 19 ft. The pressure gradient will relax late this week. Surrounding these two enhanced areas is long-period NW swell that will propagate SE across the waters N of 09N W of 115W this week, with seas of 7 to 11 ft. The combination of cross equatorial swell and NE swell associated with the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo winds will result in seas of 7 to 9 ft seas across the waters from 09N to 12N between 93W and 115W through the middle of the week. $$ Nelson