000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071516 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1515 UTC Fri Dec 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N102W. The ITCZ continues from 06N102W to 07N120W, then is discontinuous between 07N120W and 08N125W, then continues to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 126W and 133W. ..DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to occasionally strong winds will diminish through the morning as weak high pressure builds across the southern Gulf of Mexico, allowing seas to subside as well. The next high wind event will quickly occur Sun afternoon as strong high pres builds southward behind s cold front across southern Mexico. Gale conditions are expected Sun evening through Wed. The area of high seas generated by this event will spread W-SW nearly a thousand miles from its source region by Tue night. A cold front across the northern Gulf of California will move into the southern gulf this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were active earlier this morining across Baja California Sur and the soutehrn Gulf of California ahead of the front and a vigorous upper trough supporting the front. Fresh northerly winds will spread SE across the region this evening through Sun. This front will dissipate from the southern entrance to the Gulf of California to the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat morning. Long period 7 to 10 ft NW swell associated with the front will sweep SE to near 110W by Sat, then gradually subside through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Nocturnal pulses of fresh to locally strong NE winds, and 6 to 8 ft seas, will linger through tonight, then subside this weekend. Elsewhere, the monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N with light to gentle winds on either side of the trough and 3 to 6 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Long period NW swell will continue propagating SE to encompass almost all of the forecast waters west of 110W by Sat afternoon. This area of swell will decay by Mon. Combined waves from trade winds and swell will support a large area of 8 to 10 ft seas south of 17N and west of 105W by Sun night. A cold front will weaken and stall near 30N140W tonight. A reinforcing cold front will reach 30N140W Sat evening, accompanied by fresh winds and additional large large long period NW swell to 16 ft. This cold front will weaken as it moves eastward toward Baja California Norte through early next week. High pres building behind the front north of 20N will support fresh to strong trade winds farther south and 9 to 10 ft seas from 10N to 16N west of 130W Sat night through Mon. $$ Christensen