000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070916
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Dec 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N103W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N103W to 06N117W to 09N127W to 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ axis 
between 126W and 136W.

..DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The most recent gap wind event is drawing 
to a close as winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico become southerly 
ahead of a developing low pressure system. Winds are expected to 
fall below 20 kt later today, with seas subsiding to 5-6 ft. The 
next high wind event will quickly occur Sun afternoon as strong 
high pres builds southward behind s cold front across southern 
Mexico. Gale conditions are expected Sun evening through Wed. 
The area of high seas generated by this event will spread W-SW 
nearly a thousand miles from its source region by Tue night.

A cold front across the northern Gulf of California will reach 
the southern gulf this afternoon. Fresh northerly winds will 
spread SE across the region this evening through Sun. This front 
will dissipate from the southern entrance to the Gulf of 
California near 24N107W to 17N120W by Sat morning. Long period 7 
to 10 ft NW swell associated with the front will sweep SE to 
near 110W by Sat, then gradually subside through Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The volcanic ash plume trailing westward from the Fuego Volcano 
over interior Guatemala continues to pulse intermittently, but 
very little ash is reaching the surface near coast of Guatemala.

Gulf of Papagayo...Nocturnal pulses of fresh to locally strong 
NE winds, and 6 to 8 ft seas, will linger through tonight, then 
subside this weekend.

Elsewhere, the monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N 
with light to gentle winds on either side of the trough and 3 to 
6 ft seas. 
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Long period NW swell will continue propagating SE to encompass 
almost all of the forecast waters west of 110W by Sat afternoon. 
This area of swell will decay by Mon. Combined waves from trade 
winds and swell will support a large area of 8 to 10 ft seas 
south of 17N and west of 105W by Sun night. 

A cold front will weaken and stall near 30N140W tonight. A 
strong cold front will reach 30N140W Sat evening, accompanied by 
fresh winds and large large long period NW swell to 16 ft.

High pres building north of the ITCZ will support fresh to 
strong trade winds and 9 to 10 ft seas from 10N to 16N west of 
130W Sat night through Mon. 

$$
Mundell