000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022113
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2113 UTC Sun Dec 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 08N115W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N115W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm S of the 
monsoon trough between 95W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted within 60 nm S of the ITCZ W of 
135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec...A cold front will move across the Gulf of 
Mexico early next week and help usher in the next Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will strengthen Tuesday morning as the cold front 
reaches the Bay of Campeche, and winds behind the front funnel 
through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will
further increase to gale force later in the day on Tuesday. Seas
are expected to build to near 14 ft downstream of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late Tue. Winds will diminish below gale force Wed. 

Gulf of California: A trough will move into the northern Gulf of
California late Wed into Thu. This will allow fresh to locally 
strong winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California 
briefly from Wed night to early Thu.
 
Elsewhere: Long period NW swell is mixing with long period 
cross-equatorial southerly swell, resulting to combined seas of 6
to 10 ft across the offshore Pacific waters W of 100W. These 
seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late Mon 
afternoon. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE winds are expected through 
Wed. Winds will strengthen Wed night through Fri with seas 
building to 8 ft.

Elsewhere: The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 11N 
through at least the middle of next week. Light to locally 
moderate northerly flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, is forecast N of 
the monsoon trough, with moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, 
and 4 to 6 ft seas, forecast S of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Long period NW swell is mixing with long period cross-equatorial
southerly swell, resulting in combined seas of 7 to 9 ft across 
much the discussion waters between 95W and 125W. These seas will
continue to subside to less than 8 ft by Tue. 

Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front moving into
the region currently are observed N of 28N W of 137W with 8 ft 
seas. Fresh to strong SW flow will accompany the front through 
Wed as the front shifts eastward across the forecast waters N of 
20N. The front will also usher in a set of NW swell into the 
area, with seas building to a peak of near 15 ft north of 28N and
west of 135W Tue afternoon.
  
$$
Christensen