000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021504
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1308 UTC Sun Dec 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08.5N84W to 10.5N98W 
to 08.5N121W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N121W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60
nm S of the monsoon trough between 78W and 80W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 180 nm S of
the monsoon trough between 84W and 113W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm either side of
the ITCZ W of 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec...A cold front will move across the Gulf of 
Mexico early next week and help usher in the next Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will strengthen Tuesday morning as the cold front 
reaches the Bay of Campeche, and winds behind the front funnel 
through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will
further increase to gale force later in the day on Tuesday. Seas
are expected to build to near 14 ft downstream of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late Tue. Winds will diminish below gale force Wed. 

Gulf of California: Fresh to locally strong winds will develop 
over the northern Gulf of California briefly from Wed night to
early Thu.
 
Elsewhere: Long period NW swell is mixing with long period 
cross-equatorial southerly swell, resulting to combined seas of 6
to 10 ft across the offshore Pacific waters W of 100W. These 
seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late Mon 
afternoon. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE winds are expected through 
Wed. Winds will strengthen Wed night through Fri with seas 
building to 8 ft.

Elsewhere: The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 11N 
through at least the middle of next week. Light to locally 
moderate northerly flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, is forecast N of 
the monsoon trough, with moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, 
and 4 to 6 ft seas, forecast S of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Long period NW swell is mixing with long period cross-equatorial
southerly swell, resulting in combined seas of 7 to 9 ft across 
much the discussion waters between 93W and 130W. These seas will
continue to subside to less than 8 ft by Tue. 

Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold
front are observed N of 28N W of 137W with 8 ft seas. The cold 
front will move into the forecast waters today. Fresh to strong 
SW flow will accompany the front through Wed as the front shifts
eastward across the forecast waters N of 20N. The front will 
also usher in a set of NW swell into the area, with seas 
building to a peak of near 15 ft north of 28N and west of 135W 
Tue afternoon.
  
$$
AL