000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012200
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2200 UTC Sat Dec 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 11.5N100W to 08.5N125W.
The intertropical convergence zone continues from 08.5N125W to 
07.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was 
noted from 04N to 08N between 83W and 87W. Scattered moderate 
convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 110W and 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec...A cold front will move across the Gulf of 
Mexico early next week and help usher in the next Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will strengthen Tuesday morning as the cold front 
reaches the Bay of Campeche Tuesday morning, and winds behind the
front funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Winds will further increase to gale force later in
the day on Tuesday.Seas are expected to build to 15 ft 
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed.

The NOAA Ship RUEBEN LASKER is reporting fresh NW winds off the 
coast of Baja California Norte. The winds result from a 
relatively tight pressure gradient between 1026 mb high pressure 
west of the area and 1010 mb low pressure over the lower Colorado
Valley. Nocturnal coastal effects may allow winds to increase to
20 to 25 kt tonight off Bahia Rosario along roughly 30N before 
diminishing later in the morning. 

Elsewhere: Fresh to locally strong NW flow is expected W of the 
Baja Peninsula through Sun night. Long period NW swell is mixing 
with long period cross-equatorial southerly swell, resulting to 
combined seas of 8 to 13 ft across the offshore Pacific waters W
of 100W. The highest seas are N of 28N in predominately NW 
swell. These seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by 
late Mon afternoon. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE winds expected through Sun 
morning, with these conditions resuming on Mon night and 
continuing through Wed. A strong gap event is forecast on Wed 
night through Fri with seas building to 8 ft. 

Elsewhere: The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 11N 
through at least the middle of next week. Light to locally 
moderate northerly flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, is forecast N of 
the monsoon trough, with moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, 
and 4 to 6 ft seas, forecast S of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Long period NW swell is mixing with long period cross- 
equatorial southerly swell, resulting in combined seas of 8 to 12
ft across much of the discussion waters W of 95W. These seas 
will continue to subside from the W to less than 8 ft by late Mon
across the waters W of 125W. 

Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop northwest of a line
from 30N135W to 28N140W by Sun morning ahead of the next cold 
front which will move into the NW waters Mon. This front will 
usher in a new set of NW swell into the forecast waters, building
seas to a peak of near 20 ft north of 28N and west of 135W Tue 
afternoon.
  
$$
Christensen