000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010331 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 310 UTC Sat Dec 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11.5N95W. Another segment extends from 11N103W to 08.5N120W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 08.5N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 98W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection from 09N to 11N between 108W and 114W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 07N to 10N between 125W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: A cold front moving across the region brought strong westerly gap winds over the northern Gulf earlier today. The front has dissipated since then, and the winds are diminishing rapidly. Elsewhere, long period NW swell is mixing with long period cross- equatorial southerly swell, resulting to combined seas of 8 to 15 ft across the open Pacific waters N of 13N and W of 100W. The highest seas are north of 26N in predominately NW swell. A recent altimeter satellite observation indicated seas to 18 ft off the northern coast of Baja California Norte, north of Guadalupe Island. Seas of 12 ft or greater are expected to reach as far S as 23N overnight before beginning to subside. Seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late Mon morning. Looking ahead, for the Gulf of Tehuantepec...A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico early next week and help usher in the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will strengthen Tuesday morning as the cold front reaches the Bay of Campeche Tuesday morning, and winds behind the front funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will further increase to gale force Tuesday night, and increase further to 45 kt gales on Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Volcanic ash originating from the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala may be reaching the Pacific waters within 30 nm of the central Pacific coast of Guatemala through the next 24 hours. Mariners should exercise caution. Gulf of Papagayo...Nocturnal pulses of fresh NE winds are expected through the middle of next week. Elsewhere: The monsoon trough which will meander between 08N and 11N. Light to locally moderate northerly flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, is forecast N of the monsoon trough, with moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, and 4 to 6 ft seas, S of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Long period NW swell is mixing with long period cross- equatorial southerly swell, resulting in combined seas of 8 to 18 ft across much the discussion waters W of 100W. The NW swell is building the highest seas N of 24N. These seas will subside from the west to less than 8 ft by late Mon morning across the waters west of 125W. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop northwest of a line from 30N137W to 28N140W by Sun morning ahead of the next cold front which will move into the NW waters Mon. This front will usher in a new set of NW swell into the forecast waters, building seas to near 20 ft north of 28N and west of 135W Tue afternoon. $$ Christensen